Admiral Fallon
I wanted to be the first, well one of the first, at least not the last, to congratulate Admiral Fallon on his new position as Centcom
Adm. William J. Fallon: An Experienced Naval Officer, and a Diplomat - New York Times. A career which has taken him from the Ra5c Vigilante and the RVAH squadrons down in Key West. This was one of my little corners of the military when I was in. I believe he had left by the time I came through RVAH 7 but I'm sure he would remember base features such as the Fleet Hanger (particularly that long hallway with the windows that overlooked the inside of the hanger), Nipstrafac and the base dining-hall (I loved that dining hall). He has been made the new commander of US Central Command, whose area of responsibility includes parts of east africa, the middle east, and parts of central asia
United States Central Command - Wikipedia. Regarding the picture accompanying the NYT article : when a guy with a crew cut and a mustache follows you around with a M4A1 you know things are serious. There are a few potential meanings you could read into something like this. First to pick a commander offering a sense of gravitas. Combining authority and diplomacy in a package compatible with his immediate subordinate, General Petraeus, the theater commander in Iraq
Bush to Name a New General to Oversee Iraq - New York Times, underscores the importance of the position. This dovetails in with a desire to seek a commander with a big picture view. The Navy historically has had a greater sensitivity to strategic integrated operations. Another set of viewpoints which have been raised by people like Laura Rozen in her web log War and Piece and her pieces in TAP and elsewhere (these are listed on her weblog) is that picking a senior Navy commander for this position is telegraphing that this may turn into a wider multi-operation war before it stabilizes
War Could Last Years, Commander Says - New York Times. Acknowledging that sea interdiction may be key to wider anti-terrorist operations, as opposed to narrower anti insurgent operations. It is also possible to read in this a view that a war with Iran is considered possible with attendant major theater force projection and sea control operations in the Gulf. It is no great coincidence that Israel "leaks" plans for a nuclear weapons assault against Iran at this time
Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran - Sunday Times - Times Online. A go-it-alone approach that would seek to succeed where a conventional weapons air campaign, even an extended campaign jointly by the US and Israel together is seen as likely failing to accomplish more then a temporary degrading of Iran's capabilities. After such a strike to the US Navy would fall the repercussions of keeping our oil fueled economy alive in the reaction to follow. This as good as time as any to point to a little history from the Iran Iraq war:
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). This article from Global Security.Org distills a book length treatment by the US Army war college
Lessons learned : the Iran-Iraq War. I 'll outline here for those unlikely to follow these links.
Early events of the conflict include Ayatollah Khomeini being expelled from Iraq in 1977 after fifteen years in An Najaf. Saddam Hussien becomes ruler of Iraq in the years following this. After assassination attempts on Tariq Aziz and another Iraqi official, the Iraqis rounded up "members and supporters of Ad Dawah and deported to Iran thousands of Shias of Iranian origin." In the summer of 1980, Saddam Hussein ordered the executions of Ad Dawah leader Ayatollah Sayyid Muhammad Baqr as Sadr and his sister. These were the father and aunt of today's Moktada al-Sadr. The disarray in Iran, the (literal) dismemberment of the pre-revolution Iranian military lead Hussein to attempt a war of territorial conquest. After a brief initial success Iran recovers, the war stalls. For the next eight years Iraqi cannot figure out how to get the attrition rates down low enough to make a break through offensive possible. Although with chemical weapons (mustard and nerve gas) they can keep casualties low enough to avoid giving the war up. During the war Iran and Iraq attack each others advanced weapon (nuclear) facilities. Iran attacking Iraq's Osirak complex 30 Sep 1980 (Israel attacks the same target 07 Jun 1981). And Iraq attacking the Bushehr facility in Iran several times during the course of the war. It wasn't until the phase of the hostilities known as the Tanker War, that gradual international involvement came to the forefront. On 17 May 1987 an Iraqi cruise missile attack on the USS Stark, I believe with French Super-Etendard combat aircraft and an Exocet, killed 37 sailors. The US Government began a reflagging operation to allow the US and allied navies to escort oil tankers through the gulf. This was Earnest Will (Operation Earnest Will - Wikipedia) the first of several Pentagon code-name operations starting from 24 Jul 1987. This was twinned with
Operation Prime Chance - Wikipedia a proactive operation mostly aimed at Iranian assets by US special forces. In September 1987 the US seized the Iran Ajr an Iranian mine-laying vessel. Then came
Operation Nimble Archer - Wikipedia. After an attack on one of the reflagged tankers on 16 Oct 1987, special ops forces attacked two Iranian oil platforms being used as shipping attack command and control posts on 19 Oct 1987. Things finally culminated with
Operation Praying Mantis - Wikipedia. On 14 Apr 1988 a mine explosion severely damaged the USS Samuel B. Roberts, This lead on 18 Apr 1988 to a large scale counter-attack against the Iranian Navy, and other gulf oil platforms it was using. Things ended that day with one large Iranian surface combatant sunk, and another severely damaged. These were destroyer-sized ships and primary units of the Iranian navy. A cruise missile firing patrol vessel appears to have been destroyed as well, and 4-6 smaller tactical craft. Later that summer (03 Jul 1988) the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655 killing all 290 people aboard the airliner, while trying to bait bog-hammers (a name for speed boats outfitted with machine guns, recoilless rifles, RPGs and the like the waterborne equivalent of a Technical) to attack it. The Iranians will recall that the above two events occurred concurrently with a renewed major Iraqi offensive that lead the Iranians to finally agree to a cease fire and end the war. All this was prior to 'Gulf War I' which didn't involve the Iranians except to the extent they saw their enemy defeated, then spared to avenge itself on the Iraqi Shia. This is one reason that they have involved themselves so heavily in Iraqi affairs now. A circumstance that figured into the decisions of 1991. Iran does not perceive the U S as ever being truly neutral during the 1980's war - which cost 300,000 Iranian lives. U S strategic interests in the region have never amounted to more than to never let the Arabs or Persians agree to anything more among themselves than to sell the west oil and gas unhindered. On this U S neutrality balanced. As the U S contemplates a more confrontational posture with Iran It should be acknowledged that the Iranians have spent as much time thinking of ways to shut the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf down as we have of keeping it open. There are no cake-walks here.
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