Lebanon Fallout
Another post I've been writing away at for a while. Hesitating to finish it because I didn't like a sentence here or a paragraph there. Waiting for some clarity to arrive that would give me something to say. While the Lebanon border war was still ongoing, there began some talk - based on the administration's attitude that some within it regarded this turn of events as a sort of double or nothing proposition
Doubling Two Bad Bets?. This views the swirling rhetoric as describing one last chance (or one more chance) to develop an obtaining middle east policy (pull a successful middle east policy out of a hat) by re-centering the "war on terror" on Hamas, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran. Putting everything on Iran and spinning the wheel again. This was the thrust of Sydney Blumenthal's article in Salon
Salon.com | The neocons' next war early in the month and certainly part of Sy Hersh's piece at mid month
New Yorker: WATCHING LEBANON. Hersh's article describes sources telling him the U S at various levels may have been involved in early - stage planning of this conflict, encouraged it and viewed the war as a proxy
FT.com / In depth - Bush believes conflict is a US-Iran proxy war, as precursor (eliminating a threat axis), stalking horse, as practice for a strike against Iran. What does this accomplish for the administration? The rhetorical conflation turns U S military policy in to an infinite loop. They may have the idea that all the middle east and anti US/western reaction
The Guns Of August are actually interrelated and the best way to fight it is to roll it all up into one big ball
Cheney accused of politicizing terrorism - Yahoo! News, one big critter fight. This probably represents mistaken and unfortunate anthropomorphic thinking, but they already have a St. George
Why Bush embraces Israel's hard line | csmonitor.com. They may also have had the idea that with the war on terror equaling many disparate wars - things will always be going better (in a relative sense) in one area than another. The heart of the struggle, will always be there, and the struggle will go round and around. Jockeying for an electoral position has its place too There is only 'us' and 'them'. In the places beyond lie terror-able things. The republican dichotomy will not attempt to be more sophisticated than that. Criticizing any part of the administration, doubting its policies is to invite the terror home. The right blogospheres current fixation with what they term fauxtography - no more than so much blowing smoke
In Defense of War Photographers . What do they think they are proving with this gambit and to whom. That no image that shows what you do not wish to see needs to be real? They are merely blinding themselves to prevent the slightest doubt from engaging their minds. They confirm their bystander status, they have the luxury of having an attitude toward an image. The critical question for most is who won. The mere fact that this was pursued so ardently in public relations campaign in recent weeks is a sign that the military conflict did not produce a clear result. Did Hizbollah win? Well the Israeli's never managed to shut the TV station al Manar down, not in Beruit at least just New York
New York Man Charged With Enabling Hezbollah Television Broadcasts. All the articles on Hizbollah's victory - on their prowess during the fighting
Tactics that have kept the Middle East's most powerful army at bay - World - Times Online don't involve regiments of Hizbollah marching in victory, but closed area's, posters announcing the victory, Nasrallah posturing. Fighting the post conflict with Iranian cash
Hezbollah wins hearts and minds amid devastation - World - Times Online. Did all Hizbollah, or just Hassan Nasrallah come out ahead from this (trading military for political power, the politics of personal glory
In war's dust, a new Arab 'lion' emerges | csmonitor.com). Israel for its part has shown vulnerabilities. That years of being an occupation force slowed them down. But the weight of Israeli arms did seem to have torn up the caves, bunkers and neutralized the larger missiles, though it took weeks that in a serious war they will not have
On balance, Israel won this round | csmonitor.com. High tech warfare can bankrupt a nation. This war cost billions in munitions, and lost civilian opportunity. The Israeli air force now has a generation of planes and helicopters much closer to their system replacement point. With no obvious security gain. It was not the budget debate they were set on having previously
Salon.com | The coming earthquake. If one takes Seymour Hersh's assertions at face value the way the war proceeded did little to advance U S interests either. Secretary Rice's performance in this crises looked on the verge of being self destructing during her initial trip to the region
Critics taking aim at the Condi Rice show - World - Times Online
. She probably did need to make a trip in advance of a ceasefire, but other than underscore Washington's concern, it was not going to produce instant dramatic results. Even so a number of articles appeared suggesting that the Neoconservative elements (more properly thought of perhaps as crypto-realists not only for their pretense at Wilsonian idealism, but also for the murky nature of their realist objectives) in the administration were sidelining Condeleeza Rice In Mideast, It's Condi's Fight Now I would suspend judgement for the time being and suggest that despite heroic levels of foot dragging on the part of France and Italy, they are committing troops to over see the cease fire. This points to behind scene effectiveness on someone's part in American foreign policy. President Bush placed himself on record as saying the Israelis won this conflict
Bush Says Hezbollah Has Been Defeated by Israel. Given that someone in this government was going to go out a say this, the president was the one. He's the only person in the world who could have said that with a straight face. At the same time it is a loss for US prestige that outside the confines of his xenophobic base, no one thinks he understands much
Another 'Mission Accomplished' Moment?. The discussion now turns to whether the the cease fire will hold - in Gaza as well as the Lebanon border. Currently Israel seems more dubious of the cease fire
For Israelis, truce with Hizbullah is unrealistic | csmonitor.com feeling all that was unaccomplished by conflict
Israel Committed to Block Arms and Kill Nasrallah - New York Times. What does the cease fire commit everyone to? In the first place UN Resolution 1701 "[which] says there should be "no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government," but it does not provide for enforcement of that tenet." I imagine that much of the discussion within in the UN is that the peace keeping forces not be seen as being an Israeli buffer army. And that they are not made to interpret Resolution 1701 as requiring them to disarm Hizbollah at gunpoint
Analysis: why Hezbollah will not be disarmed - World - Times Online. There is some indication Hizbollah's concern in the near term is rearming and rebuilding, before other Lebanese militias form
The Globe and Mail: In widening Lebanese rift, some see return to abyss, and EU peacekeeping forces arrive. They may be relatively unarmed at the moment in the wake of the conflict, shifting the emphasis to abandoning comprehensive rearming. Curiously the cease fire agreement also calls for resolving a dispute on a patch of mountain side (mount Herman) overlooking south Lebanon that both sides for their own reasons may desire not to resolve
Behind the dispute over Shebaa Farms | csmonitor.com .
Periodically the relationship between Israel and its neighbors grabs the worlds attention, and some seek an immediate comprehensive solution where simply a period of living without killing, if obtainable, will suffice. Israel may need to reflect on what nation is Israel. A secular nation of the Jewish people it must control its polity according to religious identity without becoming a theocracy. It is a balancing act. It precludes classes of solution, there can be no 'right of return' for Arabs, there must be settlements of land ownership, resettlement of land dwellers, adjudicated complex borders - borders with maximum squiggle. Israel must increasing take a hard look at the future abandoning a present that consists of living in the past - in the victory of 1967 and the dogged occupation it brought Israel. If there really a two-state solution in this. Israel's neighbors must accept the Jewish state. There must be a genuine representation of their people in this acceptance. There is nothing to be gained trying to arrange substitutes for entities like Hamas and Hizbollah. Leaving them rebels with or without a cause. It is better to put responsibility for governing on them, bind them to their people and press them for clear positions. If not there are no solutions at all
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