a turning point
By now every one has had a chance to comment on the capture of Saddam Hussein. But where would I be if I didn't add my own thoughts. I had two ideas about where he was holding out, one was pretty much the way things turned out. Living in a shack in the heart of his tribal area, with only minimal efforts at disguise, looking like a bum with a suitcase full of hundreds and twenties (is that right was he carrying Benjamins around?). My other idea is that he was hanging out in the desert with some Beduins.
First: no mistake, this is a positive development. While what is transpiring in Iraq is an insurgency (as opposed to some abstract percolate of evil), it's not a popular insurgency. It is comprised of those people mostly from his own area who got up on their rat boards and rode Saddam's wave in longest. People who have no good future in any of the likely Iraqs to come, The insurgency was being fought using leftover funds chasing a shadow, by means of the mercenary, desperate, and criminally minded. There will be a period of denial now, while Saddam, the Lion of Mesopotamia, is prepared for his inevitable Ceausescu'ing. Soon, though, these people will begin to exchange a lost possiblity for whatever reality they can deal for. The situation in Iraq will move from intractable to increasingly tractable. I saw a news report from the San Franscisco Chronicle that shares in the company that makes ceramic body armor plate for infantry fell 18 points yesterday. That says more about the markets penchant for over reaction than anything else, but as they say You don't need a weatherman to see which way the wing is blowing
You can contrast this with what some observers where con
sidering last month - that this situation was on the verge of spiraling out of control. Some people thought this might lead to widespread regional instability and war. That was possible, but not likely. It would have required other players entering the game. It would have required the neighboring states to indirectly though not transparently enter into opposition. As it stands the consenus is that there are only about 5000 people fighting this insurgency. That figure bounced around between 500 and 50,000, for a while it seem this war was being fought by powers of ten. Now it seems it has come down to who can spread money around fastest. All this is very far from the administration vision of
The Mideast as arc of freedom as the CS Monitor put it. The first sentence of the led (emphasis added ) is key: The Bush administration's professed vision for the Middle East is undeniably appealing. In recent weeks US officials from the president on down have talked more and more about their hope that the region will now slowly develop into an arc of freedom and democracy
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