Deepak Salem, April 28th, 2014
The Myth: The myth states that because heat waves have occurred in the past as a commonplace natural phenomenon, they are also harmlessly natural in the present as well as in the upcoming future. In an article written on the Telegraph, Miranda Devine cited evidence in the source of Australia to support this notion that because heat waves have happened in the past, they are also normal in the present. She states that “Whatever is the extent of global warming and any human contribution to climate change, exaggerating the 2013 [heat wave] is just another green lie which will blow up in all our faces.” If utilizing this logical fallacy in that future heat waves will follow because past heat waves have occurred, our understanding of climate change will alter. The understand right now is that heat waves are becoming more commonplace due to the rising carbon emissions and pollution. If this myth were true, scientists would need to reevaluate just exactly what climate change is.
What the Science Really Says: This myth is inaccurate due to the fact that these increase in heat waves are indeed anthropogenic. The frequency, duration, and intensity of these heat waves are caused by the increase in carbon emissions and this trend will indubitably increase, causing even more intense heat waves. In an article written by Dr. Comou and Dr. Robinson, two different situations were compared with a climate computing model. One scenario was a future in which humans will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels and the other future was one where humans rapidly reduce emissions and reduce greenhouse gasses. Unfortunately, the range of the Earth that will experience extreme summer heat will quadruple and so will the intensity of the heat waves.
Discussion: This myth actually denies the existence of climate change and instead states that it is a naturally occurring, cyclic phenomenon. The myth also utilizes the logical fallacy non sequitor in that just because the heat waves naturally occurred in the past, they are not necessarily occurring naturally in the present as well as in the upcoming future.
Some have accused climate change deniers of outright deception; others have given them the benefit of the doubt and think they may merely be mistaken in interpretation. (In fact, almost certainly both cases exist!). Where you can, identify the logical fallacies and failures to follow Kida's toolkit that can be seen in the myth you examined.
Bibliography Comou, D., A. Robinson. 2013. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes. Environmental Research Letters Volume 8. 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034018 Cook, John. "Climate Science Glossary." Skeptical Science. N.p., 31 Jan. 2014. Web. 28 Apr. 2014. Devine, Miranda. 15 January 2013. “Aussie’s have weathered nature’s extremes before”. theTelegraph. 4 April 2014. SGC bibliographic style.