UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

Department of Economics

 

Advanced Topics in International Trade (econ 745)

Spring 2006

 

Course web page: www.wam.umd.edu/~Limão/econ745/econ745.html

 

Instructor:

Nuno Limão

 

Time and Location:

Tu Th: 2-3:15

4118F Tydings Hall, x57842

 

4118C Tydings Hall

Limão@econ.umd.edu

 

 

Off. hrs: Tu Th 11:00-12:00 or by appt.

 

 

·         Objectives

·         Pre-requisites

·         Requirements

·         Course outline

·         Reading list

Objectives

This course has two objectives. First, to analyze recent research on selected topics in trade in order to identify dissertation topics. Second, to aid in your transition from consumer to producer of research by critically presenting some of this research yourself. In the first part of the course we analyze the theory and evidence for alternative political economy models of trade policy and then focus on the recent work on "pure" trade agreements and trade agreements with non-trade objectives. The focus of the second part of the course is mostly on empirical tests of trade theories and the effects of trade on productivity, technological diffusion and growth. The final part addresses the appropriate use of trade shocks as a source of identification to analyze non-trade outcomes.

 

Pre-requisites

You must have taken ECON 604 and either 622 or 624. I also highly recommend that you take ECON 742.

 

Requirements

·         Presentations: Each student is required to present at least twice during the semester (the exact number will be 2 or three presentations depending on the number of students enrolled). The presentations will last 20 minutes and should provide a critical evaluation of the article chosen from the detailed reading list of those denoted with “s*”.

·         Exercises: There will be two empirical exercises. You will work in pairs for these.

·         Summary papers: In order to benefit from the class all students must read the key articles before class. Therefore I will require a 2 page summary of some of those articles before each class. You need to do this 5 times during the semester and you will be able to choose the topics from the articles marked either “**” or “s*”.

·         Epilogue presentations and reading list: The Epilogue aims to bring together various parts of the syllabus and get you to think about their implications when using trade shocks to study outcomes that are not immediately related to trade. Each student must individually choose three papers that use trade related shocks (e.g. world prices or trade volumes, policy or trade costs) to study any of the following outcomes: wages, productivity, inequality, poverty or institutions (e.g. labor standards, child labor, etc). At least one of the three papers must be an example of a good use of a trade shock as an exogenous source of identification and one a misuse. You will then pair up and choose two papers, one of each, by April 11th. You will present and defend your choices in the last classes. I can provide recent reviews if you need an initial guide.

·         The final grade will be a weighted average of your presentations (30%), summary papers (5%), exercises (20%), and final exam (45%). In exceptional cases the final exam may be replaced with a paper on a topic related to the class.  This will be addressed on a case-by-case basis and it is a privilege rather than a right.

Course outline

Part I: Trade policy

1. Introduction

1.1 The questions

1.2 Measuring trade policy

2. Political economy models of trade policy

2.1 Theory

2.2 Evidence

3. Important puzzles in trade policy

3.1 The choice and use of inefficient redistribution policies

3.2 Anti-trade bias

4. International political economy and the world trading system

4.1 Theory and practice of “pure” trade agreements

4.2 Theory and practice of trade agreements with non-trade objectives

4.3 Effects of Trade Agreements on Trade Policy: The Evidence

Part II: Trade theory and evidence

1. Trade patterns, volume  and composition

1.1 The questions

1.2 Comparative advantage models

1.3 Scale economies: evidence

1.4 Volume and composition of trade

2. Trade, productivity, technological diffusion and growth

2.1 Theory

2.2 Cross-country evidence

2.3 Evidence on international knowledge/technology diffusion

2.4 Trade and productivity: Plant and firm level evidence

Epilogue

1. Trade shocks: uses and misuses as exogenous variation for non-trade outcomes

1.1  Wages and productivity

1.2  Inequality and poverty

1.3  Institutions

Reading list

Basic material

The following books contain background and supplemental material that may be useful. Some of them also contain specific readings listed under each topic.

Anderson, J.E. and P.J. Neary. 2005. Measuring the Restrictiveness of International Trade Policy. MIT Press.

Bagwell, Kyle and Robert Staiger. 2002. The Economics of the World Trading System, MIT Press.

Feenstra, R.C. 2004. Advanced International Trade, Theory and Evidence. Princeton University Press.

Grossman, Gene and E. Helpman. 1991. Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT Press.

Grossman, G. and E. Helpman. 2001. Special Interest Politics. MIT Press.

Grossman, Gene and K. Rogoff, eds. 1995. Handbook of International Economics, Vol III, Elsevier.

Choi, K.E. and J. R. Harrigan. 2004. Handbook of International Trade, vol I. Blackwell. 

Helpman, Elhanan and Paul Krugman, Trade Policy and Market Structure, MIT 1989.

Hoekman, B. and M. Kostecki. 2001. The political economy of the world trading system : from GATT to WTO, 2nd ed, Oxford Univ. Press.

Jackson, J. 1997The world trading system: law and policy of international economic relations, 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Leamer, Edward. 1984. Sources of International Comparative Advantage: Theory and Evidence, MIT.

 

 

Notes for the detailed reading list below

“*”  Denotes a required reading. Summary papers can cover these.

 “S*” Denotes a required reading of an article that I expect a student to present. Summary papers can cover these.

“ r ” Denotes a review. Some are important enough and so required, they are marked as “*r”.

“ b ” Denotes background material generally for the trade policy section.

References that are not preceded by any of the marks above denote other interesting papers in the topic.

The underscored titles indicate online availability (for some of these you must access from the campus).

Part I: Trade policy

1. Introduction                                                                                                                                                                      

1.1   The questions

r Rodrik, D. 1995.  "Political Economy of Trade Policy" in Handbook v.III  1457-94.

r Staiger, R. 1995.  "International Rules and Institutions for Trade Policy" in Handbook v.III  1495-1551.

r Trebilcock, M.J. and Robert Howse. 1999. The regulation of international trade, 2nd ed. Routledge. Chs. 15 and 16.

1.2   Measuring trade policy

*Anderson, J. and J.P. Neary. 2005. Chs 2, 4. (chs. 12, 13 recommended)

Kee, H.L., A. Nicita and M. Olarreaga. 2004. “Estimating Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Indices,”cepr dp 4669.

Pritchett, L. 1996.  "Measuring Outward Orientation in LDCs: Can it be Done?" Journal of Development Economics, 49(2), 307-335.

bWTO country trade policy reviews

2. Political economy models of trade policy

2.1 Theory

*r Helpman, E. 1997. “Politics and Trade Policy,” in D.M. Kreps and K.F. Wallis (eds.), Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications (New York, Cambridge University Press), 1997. ( Working paper)

*r Rodrik, D. 1995.  "Political Economy of Trade Policy" in Handbook v.III  1457-94

2.1.1        Demand, supply and median voter models of protection.

Findlay, R., and S. Wellisz. 1982.  “Endogenous Tariffs, the Political Economy of Trade Restrictions, and Welfare." in Jagdish Bhagwati (ed.), Import Competition and Response, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Hillman, A. L. 1982.  "Declining Industries and Political-Support Protectionist Motives." American Economic Review 72(5): 1180-1187.

Mayer, W. 1984.  "Endogenous Tariff Formation." American Economic Review 74(5): 970-985.

2.1.2        Political contributions and electoral models of protection

*Grossman, G. and E. Helpman. 1994.  Protection for Sale." American Economic Review, 84: 833-850.

*Mitra, D. 1999.  "Endogenous lobby formation and endogenous protection: A long- run model of trade policy determination." American Economic Review 89(5): 1116-1134.

Grossman, G. and E. Helpman. 2004. “A Protectionist Bias in Majoritarian Politics.” NBER WP 11014.

Grossman, G. and E. Helpman. 2001. Special Interest Politics. MIT Press. Chs. 7,8,10.

2.2      Evidence

*Bandyopadhyay, Usree and Gawande, Kishore. 2000. “Is Protection for Sale? Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection.” Review of Economics and Statistics 82(1), 139-52.

s*Goldberg, P. K. and G. Maggi. 1999.  "Protection for sale: An empirical investigation." American Economic Review 89(5): 1135-1155.

s*Trefler, D. 1993.  "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection - an Econometric Study of United-States Import Policy." Journal of Political Economy 101(1): 138-160.

r Gawande, K. and P. Krishna. Forthcoming. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Empirical Approaches" Handbook of International Trade.

Baldwin, R. The Political Economy of U.S. Import Policy, 1985, MIT Press. ch. 4.

Dutt, P. and D. Mitra. 2002. "Endogenous trade policy through majority voting: an empirical investigation." Journal of International Economics 58, 107-133.

Lee, J. and P. Swagel. 1997. "Trade Barriers and trade flows across countries and industries." The Review of Economics and Statistics, 372-82.

Scheve, K. F. and M. J. Slaughter. 2001.  "What determines individual trade-policy preferences?" Journal of International Economics 54(2): 267-292.

3. Important puzzles in trade policy

*r Rodrik, D. 1995.  "Political Economy of Trade Policy" in Handbook v.III  1457-94

3.1 The choice and use of inefficient redistribution policies

3.1.1 Asymmetric and imperfect information

*Coate, S. and S. Morris. "On the Form of Transfers to Special Interests." Journal of Political Economy, 1995, 103(6), 1210-35.

*Falvey, R. E., Lloyd, P. J. 1991 “Uncertainty and the Choice of Protective Instrument.” Oxford Economic Papers. 43(3) p. 463-79.

Feenstra, R.C. and T.R. Lewis .1991. "Distributing the gains from Trade with incomplete information." Economics and Politics, 3,  21-40.

3.1.2        Lobby competition and free-riding

s*Rodrik, D. 1986. “Tariffs, Subsidies, and Welfare with Endogenous Policy." Journal of International Economics 21 285–96.

Dixit, A.; Grossman, G. M. and Helpman, E. "Common Agency and Coordination: General Theory and Application to Government Policy Making." Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105(4),  752-69.

3.1.3        Other

*Drazen, A. and N. Limão. 2003. Government Gains from Self-Restraint: A Bargaining Theory of Inefficient Redistribution Policies,” CEPR DP no. 4007.

3.2 Anti-trade bias

*Limão, N. and A. Panagariya. 2005. "Inequality and Endogenous Trade Policy Outcomes" mimeo UMD.

*Tovar-Rodriguez, P. 2004. “The Effects of Loss Aversion on Trade Policy and the Anti-Trade Bias Puzzle.” mimeo.

Fernandez, R. and D. Rodrik. 1991. “Resistance to Reform: Status-Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty." American Economic Review 81:1146–55.

Levy, Philip. 1999. "Lobbying and International Cooperation in Tariff Setting." Journal of International Economics, 47, 345–370.

4. International political economy and the world trading system

* r Staiger, R. W. 1995. "International Rules and Institutions for Trade Policy" in Handbook V. 3 1495-1551.

4.1   Theory and practice of “pure” trade agreements

4.1.1        The structure and history of the GATT/WTO

*Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. 2002.. Ch. 3

b Hoekman, B. and M. Kostecki, Chs.1,2.

b Jackson, chs: 1, 2.

b WTO, WTO Agreements on CD-ROM: The Legal Texts and Schedules: Services, 2002, Cambridge University Press.

4.1.2 The motivations for trade agreements

Terms-of-trade

*Bagwell, K. and R. W. Staiger. 1999.  "An economic theory of GATT." American Economic Review 89(1): 215-248.

*Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. 2002. Ch. 2

s*Grossman, G. M. and E. Helpman. 1995.  "Trade Wars and Trade Talks." Journal of Political Economy 103(4): 675-708.

Gros, D. 1987. "A Note on the Optimal Tariff, Retaliation and the Welfare Loss from Tariff Wars in a Framework with Intra-industry Trade",  Journal of International Economics, 23 (3/4): 357-67

Johnson, H. 1954. "Optimum Tariffs and Retaliation.'' Review of Economic Studies, 21: 142-53.

Krugman, Paul. 1997. "What Should Trade Negotiators Negotiate About?" Journal of Economic Literature 35(1):113-20.

Pure political externalities

Ethier, J.W. 2002. "Political Externalities, Nondiscrimination, and a Multilateral World." PIER Working Paper 02-030.

Commitment

*Maggi, G. and A. Rodriguez-Clare.1998. "The Value of Trade Agreements in the Presence of Political Pressures" Journal of Political Economy, 106(3):574-601.

Staiger, R. W. and G. Tabellini. 1987.  "Discretionary Trade-Policy and Excessive Protection." American Economic Review 77(5): 823-837.

Staiger, R. and Guido Tabellini. 1999.  Do GATT Rules Help Governments Make Domestic Commitments?” Economics and Politics, 11(2),  109-44.

4.1.3 Can countries influence their TOT?

*Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. 2002. ch. 11.

Testing the optimal tariff theory

*Broda, C, N. Limão and D. Weinstein. 2006. "Optimal Tariffs: The Evidence. " mimeo.

Effects of tariff changes on prices

*Chang, W. and Winters, L. A. 2002. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of Mercosur." American Economic Review, 92(4),  889-904.

Kreinin, M. E. 1961. "Effect of Tariff Changes on the Prices and Volume of Imports." American Economic Review, 51(3),  310-24.

Pass-through/imperfect competition evidence

s*Feenstra, R. C. 1989."Symmetric Pass-through of Tariffs and Exchange-Rates under Imperfect Competition - an Empirical-Test." Journal of International Economics, 27(1-2),  25-45.

r Feenstra, R.C. 1995 "Estimating the effects of trade policy." in Handbook V.3, ch 30, 1553-95 (NBER WP 5051)

r Goldberg, P. K. and M. Knetter. 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?" Journal of Economic Literature,  35(3),  1243-72.

Knetter, M. M. 1993. "International Comparisons of Pricing-to-Market Behavior." American Economic Review,  83(3),  473-86.

a.      4.1.4 Reciprocity and MFN as the pillars of the WTO: theory and evidence

*Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. 2000. "Multilateral Trade Negotiations, Bilateral Opportunism and the Rules of GATT.'' mimeo. (original version 1999 NBER WP7071).

*Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. 2002. Chs 4,5

*Bagwell, K. and R. W. Staiger. 1999.  "An economic theory of GATT." American Economic Review 89(1): 215-248.

*Limão, N. Forthcoming. “Preferential Trade Agreements as Stumbling Blocks for Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence for the U.S.American Economic Review.

Shirono, K. (2004) “Are WTO Tariff Negotiations Reciprocal? An Analysis of Tariff Liberalization,” mimeo, Columbia University.

Finger, M., Reincke, U. and Adriana Castro. 1999.  "Market Access Bargaining in the Uruguay Round: Rigid or Relaxed Reciprocity?" World Bank Policy Research Working Paper  2258.

Horn, H and Petros Mavroidis. 2000. "Economic and Legal Aspects of the Most-Favored-Nation Clause." European Journal of Political Economy, 17(2),  233-279.

b Bhagwati, J. 2002. Going Alone, The case for relaxed reciprocity in freeing trade. MIT Press. Introduction.

b Hoekman and Kostecki, ch. 4.

4.1.5        Dispute settlement and enforcement of trade commitments and rules

*Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. 2002. Ch 6.

s*Bown, C.P. 2004. “On the Economic Success of GATT/WTO Dispute Settlement,” REStat, 86(3).

*Dixit, A. 1987. "Strategic aspects of trade policy'' in Advances in Economic Theory, T. Bewley (ed.), Cambridge University Press; 329-62.

*Limão N. and Kamal Saggi. 2006. “Tariff Retaliation versus Financial Compensation in the Enforcement of International Trade Agreements.” Mimeo.

Maggi, G. 1999.  "The role of multilateral institutions in international trade cooperation." American Economic Review 89(1): 190-214.

Ethier, W. 2001.  "Punishments and Dispute Settlement in Trade Agreements." mimeo.

b Petersman, E. 1997. The GATT/WTO Dispute Settlement System: International Law, International Organizations and Dispute Settlement, Kluwer Law International Ltd.

b World Trade Organization. 1999b. "Overview of the State-of-Play of WTO Disputes.'' <http://www.wto.org>.

b WTO, Guide to GATT Law and Practice: Analytical Index.

4.1   Theory and practice of  trade agreements with non-trade objectives

s*Copeland, B. R. 1990. "Strategic Interaction among Nations: Negotiable and Non-negotiable Trade Barriers.'' Canadian Journal of Economics 23(1); 84-108.

Hoekman, B. 1989. "Determining the Need for Issue Linkages in Multilateral Trade Negotiations.'' International Organization 43 (4); 693-714.

Sebenius, J. K. 1983., "Negotiation arithmetic: adding and subtracting issues and parties.'' International Organization, 37 (2); 281-316.

b Charnovitz, S. 1998. "Linking Topics in Treaties.'' Journal of International Economic Law, 329, 329-343.

4.1.1        The expanding scope of the WTO: Environment and labor

*Bagwell, K. and R. W. Staiger. 2001. "Domestic Policies, National Sovereignty and International Economic Institutions.'' The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 2,  519-62.

*Bagwell, K. and R. Staiger. 2002. Ch 8.

*Limão, N. 2005. “Trade policy, cross-border externalities and lobbies: do linked agreements enforce more cooperative outcomes?” Journal of International Economics, 67(1), 175-199.

Barret, S. 1994. “Strategic Environmental Policy and International Trade.'' Journal of Public Economics, 54(3); 325-38.

b Anderson, K. 1998. "Environmental and Labor Standards: What Role for the WTO?'' in Krueger, Anne (ed.), The WTO as an international organization, Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1998.

b Trebilcock, M.J. and Robert Howse. 1999 The regulation of international trade, 2nd ed. Routledge. Chs 15,16.

b World Trade Organization. 1999. "Trade and Environment.''

4.1.2        Preferential trade agreements with non-trade objectives

*Limão, N. 2005. “Are Preferential Trade Agreements with Non-trade Objectives a Stumbling Block for Multilateral Liberalization?” mimeo (earlier WP).

*Perroni, C. and J. Whalley. 1994. "The New Regionalism: Trade Liberalization or Insurance?'' NBER WP 4626.

Fernandez, R. and Portes, J. 1998 "Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements.'' World Bank Economic Review, 12(2); 197-220.

Schiff, M. and A. Winters. 1997. "Regional Integration as Diplomacy.'' World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no.1801, World Bank, Washington D.C.

4.2   Effects of Trade Agreements on Trade Policy: The Evidence

4.3.1 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization

*Limão, N. Forthcoming. “Preferential Trade Agreements as Stumbling Blocks for Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence for the U.S.American Economic Review.

*Limão, N. 2005. “Are Preferential Trade Agreements with Non-trade Objectives a Stumbling Block for Multilateral Liberalization?” mimeo (earlier WP).

*Karacaovali, B. and Limão, N. “The Clash of Liberalizations: Preferential vs. Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the European Union.” World Bank working paper  no. 3493, 2005.

Foroutan, F. 1998. “Does Membership in a Regional Preferential Trade Arrangement Make a Country More or Less Protectionist?” The World Economy 21(3): 305-36.

r Limão, N. Forthcoming “Preferential vs. Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence and Open Questions,” World Trade Review.

r Winters, A. 1999. “Regionalism vs. multilateralism,” in R. Baldwin, D. Cohen, A. Sapir and T. Venables, (eds.), Market Integration, Regionalism and the Global Economy, CEPR, Cambridge, UK, Ch. 2.

b Bhagwati, J., Krishna, P. and Arvind Panagariya (eds). 1999. Trading Blocs: Alternative approaches to analyzing Preferential Trade Agreements. Chs. 1,2,27. Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.

b.                  4.3.1 GATT-WTO and Multilateral Liberalization

*Rose, A. K. 2004. “Do WTO Members have a More Liberal Trade Policy?Journal of International Economics, 63(2), 209-35.

b Ianchovichina E. and  Will Martin. 2001.  Trade Liberalization in China's Accession to the World Trade Organization World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2623

 


Part II: Trade theory and evidence

1. Trade patterns, volume and composition

1.1   The questions

*Leamer, E. 1997. "The Interplay of Theory and Data in the Study of International Trade." in Nerlove, Marc ed. Issues in Contemporary Economics, New York: New York University Press.

*r Helpman, E. 1998. "Explaining the Structure of Foreign Trade: Where do We Stand?" Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 134 (4) pp. 573-89 .

Davis D. and D. Weinstein . 2002. “What Role for Empirics in International Trade?." In Ronald Findlay, Lars Jonung, Mats Lundahl, eds., Bertil Ohlin: A Centennial Celebration, 1899-1999, Cambridge: MIT Press.

1.2   Comparative Advantage models

*Leamer, E. 1984. Sources of International Comparative Advantage: Theory and Evidence. Cambridge: The MIT Press. Chs. 1, 2, and 6.

1.2.1 Tests of the HOV theory

*Davis D. and D. Weinstein. 2001. "An Account of Global Factor Trade." American Economic Review, 91(5), 1423-53.

*Davis, D., Weinstein, D., Bradford, S., and Shimpo, K. 1997.  Using International and Japanese Regional Data to Determine When the Factor Abundance Theory of Trade Works." American Economic Review, 87(3),421-46.

s*Trefler D. 1995. “The Case of the Missing Trade and Other HOV Mysteries." American Economic Review, 85, 1029-47.

Bowen, H., Leamer, and L. Sveikauskas. 1987. “Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory." American Economic Review, 77(5), 791-809.

Harrigan, J. 1997.  “Technology, Factor Supplies, and International Specialization: Estimating the Neoclassical Model." American Economic Review, 87 (4), 475-94.

c.a.             1.2.2 Determinants of the location of production

*Bernstein J. and D. Weinstein. 2002. "Do Factor Endowments Determine the Location of Production? Evidence from National and International Data." Journal of International Economics, 56 (1), 55-76.

*Venables, A. and Nuno Limão. 2002. "Geographical Disadvantage: a Hecksher-Ohlin-Von-Thunen Model of International Specialisation." Journal of International Economics, 58,  239-63.

S*Harrigan, J. 1995. "Factor Endowments and the International Location of Production: Econometric Evidence from the OECDJournal of International Economics, 39 (1-2), 123-41.

Hummels, David; Ishii, Jun; Yi, Kei-Mu. 2001.  “The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade." Journal of International Economics, 54(1), 75-96.

Overman, H. Stephen Redding and Anthony Venables. 2004. "The economic geography of trade, production, and income: a survey of empirics." In Handbook of International Trade. (Working paper).

1.3   Scale economies’ models: evidence

*Antweiler W and Daniel Trefler. 2002. "Increasing returns and all that: A view from trade." American Economic Review 92 (1): 93-119.

*Davis, D. and D. Weinstein. 2003 “Market Access, Economic Geography, and Comparative Advantage: An Empirical PerspectiveJournal of International Economics, 59:1,  1-23.

r Overman, H. Stephen Redding and Anthony Venables. 2001. "The economic geography of trade, production, and income: a survey of empirics." Mimeo.

Davis and Weinstein. 2001. “Market Size, Linkages, and Productivity: A Study of Japanese Regions." NBER WP 8518.

Hanson, G. 1998. "Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration." NBER WP  6429.

Henderson, Vernon. 1999. “Marshall’s Scale Economies." NBER WP  7358

1.4   Volume and composition of trade

1.4.1        Gravity equation

*Deardorff, A. 1998.  Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World,” in J. Frankel ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, University of Chicago for the NBER.

*Hummels, David, and James Levinsohn. 1995.  Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence." QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, 110, 799-836.

r Harrigan, J. 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?" NBER WP 8675.

Anderson, J. 1979. “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation." American Economic Review, 69,106-116.

1.4.2        Effects of trade costs on the composition and volume of trade

*Anderson, J. and Eric Van Wincoop. 2003.  Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle." AER.

*Hummels, D. 1998.  “Toward a Geography of Trade Costs." mimeo.

s*Rose, A. K. 2004. “Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?  American Economic Review, 94(1).

Limão, N. and Anthony Venables. 2001. “Infrastructure, Geographical Disadvantage, Transport Costs and Trade." World Bank Economic Review, 15, 451-479.

McCallum, J. 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-US Regional Trade Patterns." American Economic Review 85, 615-623.

Rauch, James. 1999.  Networks Versus Markets in International Trade." Journal of International Economics, 48 (1), 7-35.

Subramanian, A. and Shang-Jin Wei. 2003. “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly,” NBER WP No. 10024.

2. Trade, productivity, technological diffusion and growth

2.1   Theory

2.1.1        Factor accumulation

Findlay, R. 1970.  Factor Proportions and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run." Journal of Political Economy, 78 (1),   27-34.

Ventura, J. 1997. “Growth and Interdependence." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1),   57-84.

2.1.2        Exogenous technological progress

*r G. Grossman and E. Helpman. 1995. “Technology and trade.” in Handbook v.III.

2.1.3        Learning-by-doing

Young, Alwyn. 1991. “Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2),  369-405.

2.1.4        R & D

*Grossman, Gene and E. Helpman,  1991 Ch. 6.

Grossman, Gene and E. Helpman, 1991 Chs. 3, 13.

Rivera Batiz, Luis A. and Paul Romer. 1991. “Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 531-55.

2.2   Cross-country evidence

s*Frankel, J. and D. Romer. 1999.  Does Trade Cause Growth”. American Economic Review;  89(3),  379-399.

r Edwards, S. 1998.  Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?” Economic Journal, 108, 383-398.

r Rodriguez, F. and Dani Rodrik. 1999.  Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence." NBER WP 7081.

Ben-David, D. 1996.  Trade and Convergence among Countries.” Journal of International Economics;  40 (3/4), 279-298.

Moreno, Ramon; Trehan, Bharat. 1997.  Location and the Growth of Nations." Journal of Economic Growth,   2(4),  399-418

2.3   Evidence on international knowledge/technology diffusion

*Branstetter, L. 2001. "Are Knowledge Spillovers International or Intranational in Scope? Microeconometric Evidence from the US and Japan." Journal of International Economics, 53 (1),  53-79.

*Coe, D. and E. Helpman. 1995. "International R&D Spillovers." European Economic Review 39,859-887.

s*Keller, W. 2002.  Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion,American Economic Review;  92(1), 120-142.

Eaton, J. and S. Kortum. 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, (40)3, 537-569.

Hu, A. and Adam B. Jaffe. 2001.  Patent Citations and International Knowledge Flow: The Cases of Korea and Taiwan." NBER WP 8528.

2.4 Trade and productivity: Plant and firm level evidence

*Bernard, A., J. Eaton, J. Jensen and S. Kortum, "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, September 2003, Vol. 93, No. 4, 1268-1290.

s*Clerides, Sofronis, Lach, Saul, and James Tybout. 1998. "Is ‘Learning-by-Exporting’ Important? Micro-dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico and Morocco." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 903-47.

*r Tybout, J.R. 2004.  "Plant and firm level evidence on new trade theories" In Handbook of International Trade  (NBER WP 8418).

Bernard, A. and J. B. Jenson. 1999. "Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?” Journal of International Economics, 47(1), p. 1-25.

Roberts, M. and J. Tybout. 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs." American Economic Review, 87 (4), 545-64.

Epilogue

1. Trade shocks: uses and misuses as exogenous variation for non-trade outcomes

1.1 Wages and productivity

1.2 Inequality and poverty

1.3 Institutions

Readings to be determined by students after consulting professor.