Papers and Publications Books
The
First Global Financial Crisis of the Financial 21st
Century: Part II, June-December, 2008 Introduction
The
First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Introduction Money,
Crisis, and Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo A.
Calvo (with Carlos A. Végh and
Andrés Velasco, eds.). (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008). Introduction
Ratings,
Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System
(with Richard Levich,
and Giovanni. Majnoni), (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002).Introduction Assessing
Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets
Institute
for International Economics , 2000).Introduction
Accounting
for Saving: Financial Liberalization, Capital Flows, and Growth in
Latin America and Europe Inter-American
Development Bank, 1999).Introduction
Papers by
topics
Financial and
debt crises
The
Aftermath of Financial Crises American Economic Review, May 2009. Related
article, The
Economic and Fiscal Consequences
of Financial Crises in VoxEU,
January 26, 2009. Spanish version.
Banking
Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace NBER
Working Paper No. 14587 , December 2008. Abstract
The
Forgotten History of Domestic Debt (with
Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper
13946, April 2008. For a summary, see The
Next (but not new) Frontier for Sovereign Default in
VoxEU
May 22, 2008 and NBER
Digest
(
This
Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of
Financial Crises (with
Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper
13882, March 2008. For a summary, see Eight
Hundred Years of Financial Folly VoxEU
April 19, 2008.
Is
The 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International
Historical Comparison ( with
Kenneth S. Rogoff) ,American Economic Review , Vol.
98 No. 2, May 2008. Spanish version. Related article, Reflections
on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of the U.S.
Subprime Crisis in VoxEU ,
March 17, 2008. Serial
Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows American Economic Review , Vol. 94, No. 2,
May 2004, 53-59. See also NBER
Digest (Cambridge:
NBER, August 2004).
Debt
Intolerance (with
Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity , Vol. 1 Spring 2003, 1-74.Summary ,
presented to the Executive Board, InterAmerican Development Bank, June
2004. Credit
Ratings, Default, and Financial Crises: Evidence from Emerging Markets ,
World Bank Economic Review 2002, Vol. 16 No. 2, 2002,
151-170.Ratings,
Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System here
American Economic
Review, Vol.89 No.4, June 1999, 473-500. Spanish version. For a
Zip file containing twenty Excel spreadsheets (one per country) of the
data used in this study click on data
base .Leading
Indicators of Currency Crises International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol.
45 No.1, March 1998, 1-48.
Financial
Crises in Latin America: Then and Now American Economic Review, Vol. 88, May 1998,
444-449. Spanish version.
Contagion When
In Peril Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion
(with Fernando Broner and Gaston Gelos). Journal of International
Economics , Vol. 6 No. 1, June 2006, 203-230.
The
Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion
(with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh), Journal of Economic
Perspectives, Vol. 17 No. 4. Fall 2003, 51-74. The Center and
the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Shocks NBER Working Paper 9479, February 2003.
in Carmen M.
Reinhart, Carlos A. Végh and Andres Velasco (eds.) Money,
Crisis, and Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo
Two
Hundred Years of Contagion
(with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A. Végh). MPRA Working
Paper 13229.Bank
Lending and Contagion: Evidence From the Asian Crisis Regional
and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences
Financial
Markets in Times of Stress Journal
of Development Economics, Vol. 69 No. 2, December 2003, 451-470. Journal of International Economics , Vol. 51
No. 1, June 2000, 145-168.Capital Flows
to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects? Guillermo A. Calvo, Morris Goldstein, Eduard
Hochreiter (eds.) Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
After the Mexican Crisis , (Washington, DC: Institute
for International Economics, 1996), 151-171 .
Capital flows Capital
Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2008 ,
(Chicago: Chicago University Press for NBER, forthcoming).For a summary see From
Capital Flow Bonanza to Financial Crash (with Vincent R.
Reinhart) w ww.VoxEU.org
Capital
Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence
(with Vincent R. Reinhart), NBER
Working Paper 13842, March 2008. Spreadsheet with cross-country
reserve requirements data
When
It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh).
in Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff, (eds.) NBER
Macroeconomics Annual 2004. Serial
Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows American Economic Review , Vol. 94, No. 2,
May 2004, 53-59. See also NBER
Digest , FDI to
Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability in B. Plesovic and N. Stern, Annual
World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002:
The New Reform Agenda. When Capital
Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options
Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary and Financial
System , The Dynamics
of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s ( with
Peter Montiel) in Stephany Griffith-Jones, Manuel Montes, eds., Short-term
Capital Movements and Balance of Payments Crises ,The
Consequences and Management of Capital Inflows: Lessons for
Sub-Saharan Africa Expert Group
on Development Issues Series, 1998:2 , (Stockholm: Almqvist and
Wiksell International, 1999).On
the Use of Reserve Requirements to Deal With the Capital Flow Problem
International Journal of
Finance and Economics, Vol. 4 No.1, January1999, 27-54.Capital
Flows and Saving in Latin America and Asia: A Reinterpretation Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 57 No.
1, October 1998, 45-66.
Some
Lessons for Policymakers Who Deal With the Mixed Blessing of Capital
Inflows (with Vincent R.
Reinhart) in Capital Flows and Financial Crises , Inflows
of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s
(with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman) Journal
of Economic Perspectives , Vol. 10, Spring 1996, 123-139.Real
interest rate differentials and the real exchange rate: Evidence from
four African countries
( with Patrick Asea). A shorter, revised version isLe
Prix del’Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows Journal of African Economies ,
Vol. 5 No. 3, Supplement Part I, October 1996, 231-271.
Capital
Flows in the APEC Region
(with Mohsin S. Khan), IMF Occasional Paper 122, (Washington
DC: International Monetary Fund, April 1995).
The
Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues
(with Guillermo A. Calvo
and Leonardo Leiderman), Contemporary Economic Policy , Vol.
XII No. 3, July 1994, 54-66.Capital
Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s Economics
in a Changing World , Vol. 4 Development, Trade and the
EnvironmentCapital
Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role
of External Factors IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 40 No. 1, March 1993,
108-151. Exchange
rates and dollarization
Exchange Rate Arrangements Entering the
21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold? (with Ethan O. Ilzetzki). This
new paper includes updates (NOW AVAILABLE ONLINE, see below ) to
the exchange rate regime classifications in The
Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation Quarterly Journal of Economics
Background material for "Exchange
Rate Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will
Hold?"
The
Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
(with Kenneth S. Rogoff) NBER
Working Paper 8963, 2002. Revised
version March 2003 , Quarterly Journal of Economics , Vol.
CXIX No. 1, February 2004, 1-48.
Background
Material to the Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A
Reintepretation? Part I . Part
II . STATA files with Natural
Classification from The Modern History of Exchange Rate
Arrangements: A Reinterpretation. Readme
File , Monthly
classification, 1946-2001 , Annual
classification,1946-2001 . The monthly
data for official and market-determined exchange rates from The
Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation.Addicted to Dollars
(with Keneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano) NBER
Working Paper 10015.Twin Fallacies About
Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets Moneda y Crédito Vol. 216, (2003), 11-29.What Hurts Most: G-3
Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility? Preventing
Currency Crises in Emerging Markets NBER
Digest ,( Cambridge:
NBER, January 2002).Fixing for Your Life
Brookings Trade Forum 2000
Fear
of Floating (with Guillermo A.
Calvo) NBER Working Paper version. Revised
version , Figure
1 of revised version , Quarterly Journal of Economics , Vol.
CXVII No. 2, May 2002, 379-408. Background material, Variance
ratios. Fear
of Floating: Exchange Rate Flexibility Indices The
Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates , American Economic
Review , Vol. 90, No. 2, May 2000, 65-70. IMF
Survey .What
Does a G-3 target Zone Mean for Emerging Market Economies? Figure
1 (longer version). Finance and
Development , Vol. 39 No. 1,
(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, March 2002), 17-19.
Devaluation,
Relative Prices, and Trade , IMF
Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 1995, 290-312.Targeting
the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence Journal of Development
Economics, Vol. 47, June 1995, 97-133.
In spanish.
Capital
controls
Capital
Controls: An Evaluation
(with Nicolas Magud), NBER Working Paper 11973, Sebastian Edwards
(ed.), Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies:
Policies, Practices, and Consequences
Stopping
Hot Money: On the Use of Capital Controls During Financial Crises (with Hali Edison), Journal of
Development Economics, Vol. 66 No. 2 December 2001, 533-553.Capital
Controls During Financial Crises: The Case of Malaysia and Thailand Financial Crises in
Emerging Markets
Temporary
Controls on Capital Inflows Journal
of International Economics , Vol. 57 No. 2, December 2002,
327-351.Do
Capital Controls Influence the Volume and Composition of Capital
Flows? Evidence from the 1990s Journal
of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18 No. 4, August 1999,
619-635.Too Much of a
Good Thing: The Macroeconomic Effects of Taxing Capital Inflows Managing Capital
Flows and Exchange Rates: Perspectives from the Pacific Basin ,
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 436-464.Consumption
and saving
Saving
in Latin America and Lessons from Europe: An Overview Accounting for Saving: Financial
Liberalization, Capital Flows, and Growth in Latin America and Europe ,
(Washington DC: John Hopkins University Press for the Inter-American
Development Bank, 1999), 3-47.
Intertemporal
Subsitution and Durable Goods: The Long Run Data Economics Letters, Vol. 61 No. 1, October 1998,
85-90. Working
Paper Measuring
Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods Journal of Political Economy , Vol. 106 No.5,
1998, 1078-1098. Working
Paper.
Saving
Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison
IMF Staff Papers,
Vol. 43, No. 1, March 1996, 38-71.Private
Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries
IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39 No.
3, September 1992, 495-517.Financial
sector, stabilization, and macroeconomic fluctuations
When
It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies (with
Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh). in Mark Gertler and Kenneth
S. Rogoff, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004.
The
Lending Channel in Emerging Economies: Are Foreign Banks Different?
(with Marco Arena and Francisco Vazquez), NBER Working Paper
12340, June 2006.
Financial
Liberalization: The African Experience Journal of African Economies , Vol. 12 Supplement
2, 2003, 53-88. For a longer version of the paper click here.
Before
and After Financial Liberalization (with
Ioannis Tokatlidis), MPRA
Paper 6986, University Library of Munich, Germany. 2003.Nominal
Interest Rates, Consumption Booms, and Lack of Credibility: A
Quantitative Examination Journal
of Development Economics , Vol. 46 No. 2, April
1995, 357-378.
Intertemporal
consumption substitution and inflation stabilization: An
empirical investigation ( with
Carlos A. Vegh). MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of
Munich, Germany, 1994.
Inflation
Stabilization in Chronic Inflation Countries: The Empirical Evidence
(with Carlos A. Vegh). MPRA Paper 13689, University Library
of Munich, Germany, August 1994.
Output
Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 4,
December 1991, 705-735. IMF
Working Paper 91/35 In
Spanish. Commodity
Prices The
Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices
(with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 41 No. 2,
June 1994, 236-261.
Commodity
Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline? (with
Peter Wickham), IMF Staff Papers , Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994,
175-213. The
Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices
(with Eduardo Borensztein, Mohsin S. Khan, and Peter Wickham), IMF
Occasional Paper 112, (Washington, DC: International Monetary
Fund, August 1994). Fiscal
Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices , IMF
Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 3, September 1991, 506-524.
Commodity
markets and the international transmission of fiscal shocks , Real
Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices in a Neoclassical Model ,
IMF Working Paper 88/55, June 1988. A
doctoral dissertation essay.
Development
The
Demand for Money in Developing Countries: Assesing the Role of
Financial Innovation A
shorter version Journal of Development
Economics, Vol. 46, 1995, 317-340.A Model of
Adjustment and Growth: An Empirical Analysis, Macroeconomic
Models for Adjustment in Developing Countries ,
A
Model of Adjustment and Growth , IMF
Staff Papers, Vol. 37 No. 1, March 1990, 168-182.Private
Investment and Economic Growth , World
Development, Vol. 18 No. 1, January 1990, 19-27. IMF
Working Paper 89/60 Shorter
Papers The
Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises in
VoxEU
January 26, 2009
Is
the US Too Big to Fail? (with
Vincent R. Reinhart) VoxEU
November 17, 2008. From
Capital Flow Bonanza to Financial Crash VoxEU
October 23, 2008.
The
Next (but not new) Frontier for Sovereign Default in
VoxEU
May 22, 2008.
Eight
Hundred Years of Financial Folly VoxEU
April 19, 2008.
Reflections
on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of the U.S.
Subprime Crisis in VoxEU ,
March 17, 2008. What
is next for financial globalization: Some perspective gained from the
experience of capital flows to emerging market economies. Conference of Financial Globalization and
Integration, European Central Bank, June 17-18, 2006. Longer
version of NBER Reporter article. Some
Perspectives on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies , NBER
Reporter NBER
profile
Serial
Default and Its Remedies (with
Kenneth S. Rogoff) in Miguel Centeno, Harold James, and J. Londregan,
eds. The Political Economy of Recurrent Debt . (Princeton, NJ:
Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies Monograph
Series, Number 3, 2005). 4-18. The Realities
of Modern Hyperinflation Finance
and Development , Vol. 40, No. 2, Washington DC: International
Monetary Fund, June 2003), 20-23. Spanish version. Financial
Turmoil: Systemic or Regional? Risk
Measurement and Systemic Risk, Is a
G-3 Target Zone on Target for Emerging Markets? Finance and Development , Vol. 39 No. 1,
(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, March 2002), 17-19. Spanish
version.
Reflections
on Dollarization (with
Guillermo A. Calvo), in Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro (eds.), Currency
Unions Capital
Flow Reversals, The Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization Finance and Development , Vol. 36,
No.3, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, September 1999),
13-15. Spanish
version.
Saving
and the Real Interest Rate in Developing Countries Finance and Development , Vol. 32 No. 4,
(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, December 1995), 16-18. Spanish
version.
