Professor Carmen M Reinhart
Department of Economics
Director, Center for International Economics
University of Maryland, College Park

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Media Related: Selected short articles by me and with co-authors, opinion pieces, media discussion and interviews. See also Book-related and Biographical Information (for a more complete listing consult Google)


VoxEU

Fiscal Stimulus for Debt Intolerant Countries? (with Vincent R. Reinhart) In VoxEU, August 22, 2009.
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises in VoxEU January 26, 2009
Is the US Too Big to Fail? (with Vincent R. Reinhart) Vox EU November 17, 2008.
From Capital  Flow Bonanza to Financial Crash (with Vincent R. Reinhart) VoxEU October 23, 2008.
Podcast on: The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century (with Andrew Felton, eds.). (London: A VoxEU, CEPR Publication, July 2008).

The Next (but not new) Frontier for Sovereign Default, May 22, 2008.
Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly, April 19, 2008.
(in French) Telos, April 24, 2008.

Reflections on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of the U.S. Subprime Crisis, March 17, 2008.
(in Italian) Lavoce.info
, April 9, 2008.

Selected recent press article citations, testimony, interviews, and miscellaneous

2009

Profiled in: What the Woman Lived, Economic Principals, David Warsh, November 1, 2009

Naming the 00s, New York Times, David Segal, November 14, 2009 (Also History News network)
Interview: High Unemployment to Continue Through 2011?, Fox Business News, November 11, 2009.
Broader Measure of US Unemployment Stands at 17.5%, New York Times, David Leonardt, November 7, 2009
Dearth of borrowing, lending hobbles recovery, Dallas Morning News, Will Deneer, November 2, 2009
Our children will lament our financial foolishness, Idaho Statesman, Edward Lotterman, November 2, 2009
Japan Sovereign Debt Crisis Looms, Financial Times, Edward Chancellor, November 1, 2009

Can the economy grow without government help? Washington Post, Neil Irwin, October 28, 2009
Re-Branding Capitalism, The Agenda with Steve Paiken, TV Ontario, October 28, 2009
Trading on thin ice, The Guardian, UK, Kevin Gallagher, October 27, 2009
Can we find a new direction? Washington Post, review, Greg Ip, October 25, 2009

Want Recovery? History Says Be Patient. Very Patient,  ,CBS MoneyWatch with Eric Schurenberg (video), October 22, 2009.
On Debt, On the Banks and Recovery, Yahoo Finance Interview, October 22,2009
Financial Folly, Editorial/Review, Arkansas Business,
This Time It's Different, Interview of Reinhart and Rogoff, Tom Keene Bloomberg's On the Economy Radio, October 15, 2009
Obama Dollar Retreats Most Against Commodities in Wealth Shift, Bloomberg, Brendan Murray, October 13, 2009
Eight centuries of financial folly Gulf Times, Qatar, Kevin Hall, October 12, 2009
Myth on stock market boom: Is it different this time? Economic Times, India, Sanjay Sinha, October 12, 2009
Q&A: Reinhart and Rogoff on the Crisis, the 'Mother of All Moral Hazard' Wall Street Journal Blog, Justin Lahart, October 12, 2009
A lack of confidence the recovery keeps many investors on the sidelines Dallas Morning News, Will Deneer, October 10, 2009
E se la ripresa delle Borse fosse forte come in passato?, Il Sole 24 Ore, Italy, October 10, 2009
Boom, Bust. Repeat,  Wall Street Journal, Review, Edward Chancellor, October 9, 2009
Next asset bubble could come sooner than you think, The Associated Press, Stevenson Jacobs, October 8, 2009
After subverting bank insolvency, our leaders are now about to make a mess of liquidity, Financial Times Blog, Willem Buiter, October 6, 2009
Recession, You Look Familiar, New York Times, Review, Devin Leonard, October 4, 2009
Authors: US economic crisis was long time in the making, Miami Herald, Kevin Hall, October 1, 2009
The Plot Between Ignorance and Arrogance, New York Times, Review, Catherine Rampell, September 30, 2009
An inconvenient truth: financial crises are inevitable, Telegraph, UK, Edmund Conway, September 30, 2009
Stocks get no respect from small investors, Dallas Morning News, Will Deneer, September 30, 2009
This Time Will Never be Different, Financial Times, Review, Martin Wolf, September 28, 2009
"This Time Is Different": Reinhart and Rogoff worry about future financial crises, Business Week, Review, Peter Coy, September 25, 2009
Leaders Face Dilemma on When to Unwind, Wall Street Journal, Justin Lahart, September, 24, 2009
Discussion of  This Time Is Different, CBNC News, WSJ Report with Maria Bartiromo, September 25, 2009
This Time It's Different: Eight centuries of financial folly; conceit and money, FinFacts, Ireland, Review, Michael Hennigan, September 24, 2009
Lehman Brothers and the Crisis: A year on. The Economist,  September 10, 2009 (brief commentary on This Time is Different)
The Aftermath of the Recession C-SPAN, September 4, 2009

The Bernanke Call
, Barron's - Steven M. Sears - ‎Aug 26, 2009‎
Recovery Won't Improve Unemployment, Fortune, Jia Lynn Yang, August 25, 2009
What Recovery Looks Like: Sane Analysis from a Fair-and-Balanced Economist. Esquire, John H. Richardson - ‎Aug 25, 2009‎
The Recession Is Over--Now What? Forbes, August 20, 2009
The Signs Don't Point To a Typical Recovery, Washington Post, Neil Irwin, August 17, 2009
Medicine Is Working, But U.S. Economy Isn’t Healthy Yet Wall Street Journal, David Wessel, August 13, 2009
Expect a Dull Recovery if Jobs Picture Fails to Brighten Wall Street Journal, David Wessel, July 11, 2009
How today's global recession tracks the Great Depression Financial Times, Martin Wolf, June 17, 2009
Government Debt: The Big Sweat,
The Economist,  June 11, 2009
What, Me Worry? Putting Some Perspective on Panic New York Times, Alina Tugend, May 22, 2009.
IMF, World Bank Warn Global Downturn is Far from Over, Malaysia Star, April 24, 2009
I
MF Offers New Tools for Global Downturn, Washington Post, Annys Shinn, March 25, 2009
Why the banking crisis is far from over, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Newsweek, March 21, 2009
Reinhart Says Fed Running Out of Monetary Policy Options: Audio
Why saving the world economy should be affordable, Financial Times, Martin Wolf, March 17, 2009
Hedging may be the best strategy for oil producers, The Calgary Herald, Canada March 16, 2009
When jobs disappear, The Economist, March 12, 2009
Stock Markets: When Will the Bull Return?, BusinessWeek, David Henry, March 5, 2009
Rule of Four, New York Times Opinion, February 28, 2009 (see also Bloomberg News, March 1, 2009
Stimulating Our Way Into a Crisis, Globe and Mail, February 18, 2009
Interview mit der US-Ökonomin Carmen M. Reinhart,
Luxemburger Wort, Luxembourg, Thomas Spang, February 17, 2009
Interview, Faule Papiere kaufen, egal zu welchem Preis“, Berliner Zeitung, Germany, Thomas Spang, February 17, 2009
Playing down the price tag of the fiscal stimulus (with Vincent R. Reinhart), Washington Post, February 10, 2009
Geithner's new bank bailout: private investors hold the key, Chirstian Science Monitor, Mark Trumbull, February 10. 2009
Pent-up Demand Could Pull Economy out of it's Hole, Wall Street Journal, Justin Lahart, February 6, 2009
I
nterview (podcast): Lessons from 800 years of financial crises, The Takeaway, February 4, 2009

Decline? I'll Decline, Newsweek, Daniel Gross, February 7, 2009
What Other Financial Crises Tell Us, (with Kenneth Rogoff), Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2009.
Europe's Growing Crisis Puts the Fed at Risk, Barrons, Jack Willoughby, February 1, 2009.
Rescue Efforts: Big Government Fights Back The Economist, January 31, 2009
Barack Obama's First Seven Days: Let the Infighting Begin! Esquire, John H. Richardson, January 27, 2009
Myths and truths about Japan's stimulus, Fortune, Jia Lynn Yang, January 21, 2009

We're Borrowing Like Mad. Can the US Pay It Back?, The Washington Post, Greg Ip, January 11, 2009.
Crisis Comparisons: How Bad Might It Get?  New York Times Blog, Catherine Rampell, January 7, 2009.
Fed Minutes Offer No Comfort, Forbes, Carl Guitierrez, January 6, 2009.
Choices made in 2009 will shape the globe’s destiny, The Financial Times, Martin Wolf, January 6, 2009.

2008

Un año pésimo (y vamos a peor), El Pais, Claudi Pérez.Spain, December 28, 2008.
Paying it forward: A look at the looming national debt, Congressional Quarterly, Kerry Young, December 12, 2008
Calling for an International Regulator, (with Kenneth Rogoff) Financial Times, November 19, 2008.
Beware of Europeans Bearing Proposals, ( with Vincent Reinhart ) Baltimore Examiner, November 13, 2008.
More from the Front Lines of the Financial Crisis, Baltimore Chronicle, Stephen Lendman, November 3, 2008.
Bush Calls 20 Nations to Summit on Markets, New York Times, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Mark Landler and Edmund Andrews, October 22, 2008.
Economics Class Becomes a Study in Current Events, The Washington Post, Steve Hendrix, October 17, 2008.
Financial crisis tests durability of globalization, The Financial Times, Martin Wolf, October 10 2008.
Taming the Beast: How Far Should Finance be Re-regulated? The Economist, October 9, 2008.
American Dream, American Nightmare, UK, MSN, October 9, 2008.
As Crisis Spreads, Global Approach Weighed, New York Times, Mark Landler and Edmund Andrews, October 9, 2008.
Asia's Revenge, The Financial Times, Martin Wolf, October 8, 2008.
CSPAN, October 1, 2008.
Washington's Waning Way, Financial Times, Alan Beatie, September, 29, 2008.
Few Good Scenarios in View as Crisis Spreads, Wall Street Journal, Jon Hilsenrath, Joanna Slater and Justin Lahart, September, 26, 2008.
Capital Bonanzas, The Economist, September 25, 2008.
Will US Bailout Work? Christian Science Monitor, Mark Trumbull, September 25, 2008.
Criticos combatem planos...Valor Economico, Brazil Ricardo Baltha, September, 25, 2008
A Crisis Bailout Primer, Wall Street Journal, India (Livemint) Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, September 23, 2008.
This crisis different? 800 years say no, Baltimore Examiner, Opinion, September 13, 2008.
Markets Police Themselves Poorly, But Regulation Has Its Flaws, Wall Street Journal, Jon Hilsenrath, July 21, 2008.
How Bad Could Things Get?, New York Times, July 18, 2008.
Past Crises Suggest More Waves of Pain, Wall Street Journal, John Hilsenrath and Mark Gongloff, July 15, 2008.
Fannie, Freddie, Sweden, Japan,  New York Times, Paul Krugman, July 11, 2008.
Watch Out for Sovereign Debt Risk, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Wall Street Journal: Opinion, June 24, 2008 and Livemint (WSJ India).
Inflation: A short history, Wall Street Journal, India (Livemint), Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, June 10, 2008.
Argentine alert as inflation spectre stalks half the world, UK Telegraph, Ambrose Evens-Pritchard, June 2, 2008.
 
This Time is Different:  A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,
PODCAST-NEC#60 of my presentation at the National Economists Club on May 27, 2008.

International Banking: Paradise lost, The Economist, May 17, 2008.
Economy may Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests, Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip, May 5, 2008
Why financial regulation is both difficult and essential, The Financial Times, Martin Wolf, April 15 2008.
Can the US Avert a Japan-Style Economic Bust? Christian Science Monitor, Mark Trumbull, March 21, 2008
The Bear Trap, Time Magazine, Justin Fox, March 20, 2008
Analyzing Eight Centuries of Financial Crises, Wall Street Journal, Justin Lahart, March 19, 2008.
News You Need to Know: Same old crisis? BusinessWeek, March 3, 2008.
Testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, February 24, 2008.
Featured in:
  The Dow Jones Newswire, February 26, and The Wall Street Journal  February 27.
Just a mild case of the Reinhart and Rogoffs, The Herald, UK, Alf Young, February 12, 2008.
Analysts Weigh Recession Forecast, National Public Radio, January 23, 2008.
A Recession, If It Comes, Could Be Worse Than Those of Recent Past, Wall Street Journal, Justin Lahart, January 21, 2008.
Economic Focus: Same As It Ever Was, What Do Earlier Banking Crises Reveal About America's Travails Today? The Economist, January 10, 2008

Challenges for the world’s divided economy, The Financial Times, Martin Wolf, January 8 2008.

NBER Digest and Reporter

The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt, NBER Digest (Cambridge: NBER, January 2009). 
Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence, NBER Digest (Cambridge: NBER, November 2008). 
Some Perspectives on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, NBER Reporter (Cambridge: NBER, Summer, 2005). My NBER profile in that issue.
Serial Default and Capital Flows, NBER Digest (Cambridge: NBER, August 2004).
No Gain from Reducing G-3 Currency Volatility, NBER Digest (Cambridge: NBER, January 2002). 

The IMF and World Bank, Finance and Development and IMF Survey

IMF Research conference honors Guillermo Calvo, IMF Survey, Vol. 33 No.10, May 31, 2004.
...Kaminsky and Reinhart analyzed how financial turbulence spreads across borders...
The Realities of Modern Hyperinflation, (with Miguel A. Savastano), Finance and Development, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, June 2003), 20-23.

In brief: More accurate exchange rate classifications, Finance and Development Vol. 39 No. 3., September 2002.
Is a G-3 Target Zone on Target for Emerging Markets?
(with Vincent R. Reinhart), Finance and Development, Vol. 39 No. 1, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, March 2002), 17-19.

Interview: Reinhart examines theory and practice in addressing financial crises, IMF Survey, Vol.30, No. 11,  June 6, 2001.
Country-specific Needs Still Dictate Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes, IMF Survey, Vol. April 16, 2001
.. Although there is a "lot of talk" in emerging markets about moving to floating regimes and adopting inflation targeting, in practice, many countries have not adopted true floating-rate regimes, according to Carmen Reinhart of the ...
Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates. Discussion, IMF Survey, Vol. 29, No. 2, January 24, 2000.
.. markets has suggested to many observers that countries trying to peg in a world of mobile capital are “fighting against the wind,” Carmen Reinhart of the ...
Capital Flow Reversals, The Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization, (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Finance and Development, Vol. 36, No.3, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, September 1999), 13-15.
Monetary and Trade Conference:  Participants Debate Benefits of Globalization, IMF Survey,  Vol. 24 No. 3, Vol. 28, No. 12, December 13, 1999.
... Economists say that each crisis is “a new breed of crisis,” according to Carmen Reinhart, but she contended that all crises have similar characteristics. ...

Conference on IMF Reform, IMF Survey,  Vol. 24 No. 3, Vol. 28, No. 12, June 21, 1999.
... But as Guillermo Calvo and Carmen Reinhart noted, industrial and developing countries part company in the developments following a speculative attack...
 ... Some objected to the “short shrift” Calvo and Reinhart gave to floating. ...

Asian crisis impact, Global Economic Prospects, Are Among Issues Discussed by AEA Panels, IMF Survey, Vol. No.,January 25, 1999.
...as to contagion...when the crises erupted, banks pulled out not only of those countries that encountered problems but from other markets too...

Mundell Festschrift: Conference Focuses on Currency Crises, Prospects for EMU, IMF Survey,  Vol. 26 No. 21, November,  17, 1997.
... In a panel discussion, Paul Krugman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland, and John Williamson of the ... Range of Indicators May Provide Warning Systems for Currency Crises, IMFSurvey, Vol. 26, No. 16, August 18, 1997
Managing Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies
, IMF Survey, Vol. 24 No. 3, December 11, 1995.

Selected older press article citations, testimony, interviews, and miscellaneous

Special report: Argentina's debt Restructuring, A victory by default? The Economist, March 5, 2005.
"Default" write Carmen
Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano..."can become a way of life."

Presentation before InterAmerican Development Bank Board of Directors, Debt Intolerance, June 2, 2004.

This Time It's Not Different. | Article from Newsweek International, February 16, 2004
Well, as University of Maryland professor Carmen Reinhart has quipped, "this time is different" has oft proved the four most expensive words in the English ..

Comment & Analysis:  The new face of the IMF: what could Rodrigo Rato do to reshape its role as guardian of the global economy?,
The Financial Times, Andrew Balls, April 21, 2004.

Literary economics-a short, handy history and "promiscuous bonding"
Financial Times, John Plender, July 14, 2003.
Carmen Reinhart alerts me to another timely quote--from Max Winkler in 1927....While a high yield on a foreign bond does not necessarily indicate inferior quality...
Promiscuous buying, however, is destined to prove disastrous. (PS The emerging market defaults began in earnest in 1928)

Global outlook: Countries with a "fear of floating,"
Financial Times, Alan Beatie, January 8, 2002

Who Under in the World's Sea of Cash? The New York Times, Nicholas Kristof with Edward Wyatt, February 15, 1999.
Rating agencies warn too late and since 1979...they react after crises instead of anticipating them.

Capital curbs should only be temporary, say economists, The Straits Times (Singapore), William Choong, Septemebr 6, 1998.

A Gathering Economic Storm?
Washington Post, Robert J. Samuelson, November 19, 1997.
"What were seeing today is the tail end of the capital flow cycle," says economist Carmen Reinhart...

Asia Woes Revive Fears of Capital Flight: Nations, Economists Debate Controls to Stem Outflows, The Wall Street Journal, Michael Phillips, November 7, 1997.
(controls on capital inflows)...Carmen Reinhart says...can shift the composition, but have not had a significant impact on the overall volume of inflows that you get..."

There may be trouble ahead--It is not easy to predict when and where currency crises will strike, The Financial Times, Robert Chote, August 4, 1997.

And now for a taste of the "Tom" "Yum"
, The Economic Times (India), August 3, 1997.
The more stunning statistics come from a study by Kaminsky and Reinhart....in 18 of 25 bank crises, the financial system was liberalized in the five years
preceding the crisis...The implication being that lack of regulatory mechanism for banks was the trigger for banking crises.

¿Sintomas de crisis financiera?
El Tiempo (Colombia), June 26, 1997.
The recession following the boom in credit and consumption, the fall in real estate prices, the overvaluation of the exchange rate,and the overindebtedness
of most Colombians could mean trouble. Reinhart.  (PS, the summer of 1998 was the worst recession and crisis since the publication of statistics in the early 1920s.)

The cost of the crisis reaches 3 million pesos, El Financiero, (Mexico), October 18, 1996.
Tardara el pais 5 años para sanear su sistema financiero: Reinhart

Economic Focus: In Pursuit of thrift, does liberalising financial markets boost saving in poor countries? The Economist, March 15, 1996.

Capital Inflows Surge to Latin America
, Journal of Commerce and Miami Herald, September 24, 1992.
El trabajo elaborado por el argentino Guillermo Calvo y la cubana-norteamericana Carmen Reinhart, del Departamento de Investigaciones del FMI...


Latin America at Risk of Capital Flight; Capital Inflows Owe to "Foreign Factors,"
Rossana Fuentes-Berain, El Financiero (Mexico), Septemeber 3, 1992.

Economic Diary: Consumer Debt Really Isn't So Staggering
, BusinessWeek, October 21, 1985.

Economic Diary: The Achilles' Heel in Private Credit Growth
, BusinessWeek, December 3, 1984.
On the credit boom...One possible explanation hazarded by economists Robert M. Sinche and Carmen M. Reinhart of Bear Stearns & Co. is that borrowers have been undaunted by the apparently forbidding level of real rates because they expect a pick up in inflation to erode those rates in the not-too-distant future.

Oil Price Drop: Blue-Collar Boom
,  Philadelphia Inquirer, May 4, 1986.
The farther down the economic ladder, the bigger the relative boost from cheaper oil products, adds Carmen M. Reinhart of the Wall Street firm of Bear Stearns...

Most Interest Rates Are Little Changed Despite a Flood of New Corporate Issues, The Wall Street Journal, Tom Herman and Edward Foldessy, February 26, 1986.
"Oil is a symbol of inflation, and inflationary expectations are eroding right along with oil prices, " said Carmen M. Reinhart, chief economist of Bear, Stearns & Co. "It will take a little time for lower oil prices to show up in the consumer price index."

 


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October 2009