Bio and CV (pdf)

Curriculum Vitae (October 2009)

Profiled in: What the Woman Lived, Economic Principals, David Warsh, November 1, 2009

Personal Information

Born in Havana, Cuba, U.S. citizen.

Married to Vincent Raymond Reinhart, one child (William Raymond) 

Education

• 1988: Ph.D., Columbia University, New York.
  Advisor:  Robert Mundell
  Doctoral Dissertation: “Real Exchange Rates, Commodity Prices, and Policy Interdependence.”

• 1981: M. Phil., Columbia University, New York.

• 1980: M.A., Columbia University, New York.

• 1978: B.A. (Summa Cum Laude), Florida International University, Miami. 

Professional Positions

• 2009 - present, Professor, Department of Economics, and Director, Center for International Economics, University of Maryland

• 2000 - April 2009 Professor, School of Public Policy and Department of Economics, University of Maryland

• 2006 - 2007, Visiting Fellow, Center for Global Development, Washington DC.

• 2001 - 2003, Deputy Director and Senior Policy Advisor, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.

• 1996 - 1999, Associate Professor, School of Public Policy and Department of Economics at University of Maryland, College Park.

• 1998 - 2001, Director, International Security and Economic Policy Specialization, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park. 

• 1995 -1996, Senior Economist, Western Hemisphere Department, North American Division, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

• 1988 - 1994, Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

• 1985 - 1986, Chief Economist and Vice President, Research Department, Bear Stearns, New York.

• Economist, March 1982 – April 1985, Research Department, Bear Stearns, New York.

Editorial Boards

• 2004 – present, International Journal of Central Banking

• 2001 – 2005, American Economic Review

• 1999 – 2003, The World Bank Economic Review

• 1998 – 2001, Review of International Economics

• 1998 – 2001, Journal of International Economics

• 1999 – 2001, Economía, Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association.

Other Professional Affiliations

• Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research.

• Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

• Founding Contributor, VoxEU a policy portal of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, June 2008 – present.

• Executive Committee Member, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA), 2004 – 2007.

• External Academic Evaluation Committee, School of Government, Universidad Torcuato di Tella, March 2004 – present.

• Member, American Economic Association.

• Member, Committee for the Status of Women in the Economics Profession, American Economic Association.

• Member, Council on Foreign Relations.

• Member,  Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association.

• Member, Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy.

Other Professional Activities

• Testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, February 24, 2008.

• Regular lecturer, IMF Institute, International Monetary Fund, Inter-American Development Bank, and the World Bank. 

• Mentor, 2004, Committee for the Status of Women in the Economics Profession

• Presentation before Inter-American Development Bank Board of Directors, Debt Intolerance, June 2, 20

• Member, Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, several years.

• Regular lecturer, Summers 2000 – 2001, Executive Program, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and Summers 1994 - 1999, Executive Program, Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University.

• Occasional lecturer, Council on Foreign Relations. Social Science Research Council, and Central Intelligence Agency.

• Member, Advisory Commission on The Role of the Multilateral Development Banks in Emerging Market Economies, sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Emerging Markets Partners, and the Inter-American Dialogue, April 2001.

• Selection Committee, Social Science Research Council Program in Applied Economics, 2000.

• Member, Overseas Development Council Working Group on The Right Role for the IMF in Development, Febuary - May 2000.

• Forum Fellow, January 27 - February 1, 2000 World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland.

• Member, 1994, Group of Thirty Study Group on Latin America Capital Flows.

Visiting Positions

• 2006 - 2007, Visiting Fellow, Center for Global Development, Washington DC.

• Fall 1996, Spring 1997 - Fall 1998, Winter 2001, Visiting Scholar, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.

• Summer 1999, Visiting Scholar, International Monetary Fund, Research Department, Washington, DC.

• Summer 1999, Visiting Scholar, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, International Finance Division, Washington, DC.

• Summer 1998, Visiting Scholar, Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

• Summer 1998, Visiting Scholar, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York.

• Summer 1997, 1998, Visiting Scholar and Lecturer, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia.

Fellowships and Awards

• Co-principal Investigator, Sloan Foundation Grant, 2009-2010

• Smith Richardson Foundation Grant, 2009-2010
  The History of International Financial Crises:  A Living Data Base, 2009-2010.

• Co-principal Investigator, National Science Foundation Grant No. 0849224,
  International financial crises cycles in long term historical perspective, 2009-2011.

• Wealth Manager “Strategist of the Month," December 2008.

• Ranked first among the over 3,400 Top Women Economists registered with Research Papers in Economics (RePec) November 2007 – present

• Keynote adress, International Real Estate Capital Markets Conference, New York, November 17, 2008. Featured in CMBS Finance.

• Keynote lecture, Some Perspectives on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona Spain, 2^nd Conference on Advances in Economics Research. Emerging Markets: Present Issues and Future Challenges, September 30-October 1.

• Keynote lecture at 75^th Anniversary of the Central Bank of Turkey “Dollarization: Consequences and Policy Options,” Istanbul, December 14-15, 2006.

• Teaching Award, 1997 - 2001, 2004, 2009, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park.

• Research Grant from Center for International Political Economy for a project on The Role of Credit Rating Agencies in the International Economy, 2000. Final Conference was held on March 1-2, 2001, The World Bank, Washington, DC.

• Biographee, Who’s Who in America, Who’s Who in Economics, and Who’s Who in the World.

• H.B. Earhart Fellow, Earhart Foundation, 1980.

• President's Fellow, Columbia University, 1978 and 1979.

• Outstanding Academic Achievement Award, Florida International University, 1978. 

Books

This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). (Princeton: Princeton University Press, September 2009)
Reviewed in: The Economist, September 10, 2009, FinFacts, Ireland, September 24, 2009, Business Week, September 25, 2009, Financial Times, September 28, 2009, New York Times Blog, September 30, 2009, New York Times, October 4, 2009, Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2009, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, ‎October 15, 2009‎  Arkansas Business Review, October 16, 2009, El Imparcial, España, October 18, 2009, The American Interest Magazine, November-December, 2009.
Discussion: C-SPAN, September 4, 2009, CNBC News, September 25, 2009 Miami Herald, October 1, 2009, BBC World Service, October, 8, 2009, Q&A: Wall Street Journal Blog, October 12, 2009, Gulf Times, Quatar, October 12, 2009, Bloomberg Radio, October 15, 2009.
Featured in: Wall Street Journal, September, 24, 2009, Telegraph, UK, September 30, 2009, El Universal (Mexico), ‎October 2, 2009, Jornal de Negocios, Portugal, October 2, 2009, Financial Times Blog, October 6, 2009, Economic Times, India, October 12, 2009, La Presse Canadienne, October 15, 2009, Expresso, Portugal, October 20, 2009, El Argentino, October 21, 2009

The First Global Financial Crisis of the Financial 21^st Century: Part II, June-December, 2008 (with Andrew Felton, eds.). (London: VoxEU and CEPR, February, 2009).

The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21^st Century (with Andrew Felton, eds.). (London: A VoxEU, CEPR Publication, July 2008).
Downloads as of October 2009: 47,608

Money, Crisis, and  Transition:  Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo (with Carlos A. Végh and Andrés Velasco, eds.).  (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008).

Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (with Richard Levich, and Giovanni Majnoni, eds.), (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002).

Accounting for Saving: Financial Liberalization, Capital Flows, and Growth in Latin America and Europe, (Washington DC: John Hopkins University Press for the Inter-American Development Bank,1999).

Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets (with Morris Goldstein and Graciela Kaminsky), (Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 2000).
Featured in: Journal of Commerce, September 26, 1997, New York Times, February 15, 1999.
Reviewed in: Foreign Affairs Vol. 79 No. 6, by Richard Cooper, November/December 2000, 176.
Charlotte Brink, Millennium - Journal of International Studies 2001; 30; 422,  http://mil.sagepub.com.

Publications in Journals

“Deleveraging: The International Evidence” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) forthcoming in American Economic Review, Vol. 00 No. 2, May 2010.

“How Nations Emerge from Emerging Market Status: A Historical Perspective,” (with Rong Qian and Kenneth S. Rogoff).Forthcoming in Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010. Vol. 25, Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 2010.

 “Addicted to Dollars,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), forthcoming in Economía, 2009.

he Aftermath of Financial Crises (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic Review, Vol. 99 No. 2, May 2009, 466-472.
Spanish version: Secuelas de crisis bancarias, Bourning Markets, Spain, January 30, 2009.
Chinese version: (coming soon)
Featured in: Contre Info, France, January 2, 2009, Minnesota Public Radio, Reuters, and Wall Street Journal Blog, Banii Nostri, Romania, January 5, 2009, Financial Times January 6, 2009, The Economist Blog, January 6 and 7, 2009, Asia Times, El Cronista, Argentina, Forbes, New York Times Blog, News Tribune, Washington, The Peninsula, Quatar, January 7, 2009, The Economist, Economic Focus, January 9, 2009, The Washington Post, January 11, 2009. Globe and Mail, Canada, January 16, 2009, Corriere della Sera, Italy, and El Pais, Spain, January 17, 2009, Business Standard, India, January 19, 2009, CNNMoney and BBCNews, January 21, 2009,  Sydney Morning Herald, Australia, January 23, 2009, Barron’s and The Island, Sri Lanka, January 24, 2009, Esquire, January 27, 2009, Zeit, Germany, January 28, 2009, The Economist, January 29, 2009, Barrons, February 1, 2009, Newsweek, February 7, 2009, Calgary Herald, Canada, March 16, 2009, The Economist, June 11, 2009, Financial Times, June 17, 2009, Forbes, August 20, 2009, Esquire, August 25, 2009, among others.
Related article: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises in VoxEU, January 26, 2009.
Downloads as of October 2009: 8,202

Is the 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) in American Economic Review, Vol. 98 No. 2, May 2008.
Spanish version:¿Es tan diferente la crisis financiera sub-prime de 2007 en EEUU? una comparación histórica internacional , MPRA Working Paper 13656, 2008.
Serbian version: Da li je američka sub-prime finansijska kriza iz 2007. godine tako različita? Medunarodna istorijska komparacija, πανoeconomicscus, 2009. 3, 291-299.
Featured in: Financial Times January 9, 2008, The Economist, Economic Focus, January 10, 2008, Ireland Post, January 20, 2008,  Investment News, January 20, 2008, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, January 20, 2008,  New Zealand Sunday Star Times, January 20, 2008, Bloomberg, January 21. 2008, The Wall Street Journal, January 21, 2008, USA Today, January 21, 2008, Globe and Mail, Canada, January 22, 2008, The Australian, January 22,  and January 26, 2008, Toronto Star, Canada, January 22, 2008, National Public Radio, January 23, 2008, Folha de S. Paulo, January 27, 2008, Hindu Business Line, India, January 27, 2008, New York Times, February 7, 2008, The Herald UK, February 11, 2008, BusinessWeek, March 3, 2008, Christian Science Monitor, March 21, 2008, Time Magazine, March 31 2008, The Economist, May 17, 2008, Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2008, New York Times, July 18, 2008, Financial Times, October 8, 2008, among others. 
It was also featured in numerous financial newsletters, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and the Royal Bank of Scotland.
Related article: Reflections on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of the U.S. Subprime Crisis in VoxEU, March 17, 2008.
Downloads as of October 2009: 31,810

When In Peril Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion, (with Fernando Broner and Gaston Gelos). Journal of International Economics, Vol. 6 No. 1, June 2006, 203-230.

When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Policies, with (Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A.Végh). in Mark Gertler and Kenneth S. Rogoff, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004.  Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 11-53 (lead article).
Reprinted in:  Revista de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia, Vol. 3, (Uruguay: Universidad de Montevideo, 2004), 9-54 (lead article).
Featured in: Folha de S. Paulo, December 12, 2004

Serial Default and the “Paradox” of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff).   American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2, May 2004, 53-59.
Featured in: Financial Times April 21, 2004 and Serial Default and Capital Flows, NBER Digest, (Cambridge: NBER, August 2004).

The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper 8963, May 2002.  Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXIX No. 1, February 2004, 1-48 (lead article).
Featured in: Business Week June 28, 2002 and Finance and Development Vol. 39 No. 3., September 2002.

The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carlos A. Végh), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17 No. 4, Fall 2003, 51-74.
Featured in: Financial Times  July 14, 2003.
Reprinted in:  ICFAI Journal of International Finance (Andhra Pradesh, India: ICFAI University Press, 2004).
Reprinted in: Mardi Dungey and Demosthenes Tambakis, Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges (New York: Oxford University Press, July 2005).
Reprinted in: Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale, Financial Crises, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2007 forthcoming).

Debt Intolerance, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1 Spring 2003, 1-74 (lead article).
Reprinted as:  La Intolerancia a la Deuda, El Trimestre Económico, Mexico, Vol. LXXVI (4), Issue 304, (octubre-diciembre, 2009), 811-884 (lead article).

Featured in: Financial Times April 21, 2004, La Nación (Argentina) June 1, 2004, The Economist November 2, 2004, Inter-American Development Bank News, November 2004, and The Economist March 5, 2005. 

Twin Fallacies About Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets,  (with Vincent R. Reinhart), Moneda y Crédito Vol. 216, 2003, 11-29 (lead article).
Reprinted in (abridged): Ekonomika, Bulletin of the Malaysian Economic Association, August 2003. 

Financial Liberalisation: The African Experience, (with Ioannis Tokatlidis), Journal of African Economies, Vol. 12 Supplement 2, 2003, 53-88. 

Fear of Floating, (with Guillermo A. Calvo). Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXVII No. 2, May 2002, 379-408, (lead article).
Featured in: The Economist, November 18, 2000 and the Financial Times, January 8, 2002.Financial Times, Deutschland, December 28, 2005, Lanka Business, Sri Lanka, August 22, 2007 Resource Investor, November 20, 2008, among others
Selected by: ISI Essential Science Indicators (Web of Science) as the Fast Breaking Paper in Economics and Business-Comment by Carmen M. Reinhart, April 2004.

Financial Markets in Times of Stress, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 69 No. 2, December 2002, 451-470.
Featured in: IMF Survey, March 6, 2

Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16 No. 2, 2002, 151-170 (lead article).

Temporary Controls on Capital Inflows, (with R.Todd Smith), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 57. No. 2, August 2002, 327-351.
Featured in: The Straights Times, Singapore, September 6, 1998.

Stopping Hot Money, (with Hali Edison) Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 66 No. 2, December 2001, 533-553.
Reprinted in: Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti  and Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 23 Newly Industrializing Countries After the Asian Crisis, (New Delhi: BR Publishing Co., December 2004).

Fixing for Your Life, (with Guillermo A. Calvo) in Susan Collins and Dani Rodrik, eds. Brookings Trade Forum 2000 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2000), 1-39, (lead article).

On Crises, Contagion, and Confusion, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Journal of International Economics, Vol. 51 No. 1, June 2000, 145-168.
Featured in: IMF Survey, January 25, 1999.
Reprinted in:  Dilip K. Das, ed. An International Finance Reader, (London and New York: Routledge Press, 2003).
Reprinted in: Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey, eds. Emerging Markets (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., 2004).
Reprinted in:  Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti, and Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 23 Newly Industrializing Countries After the Asian Crisis, (New Delhi: BR Publishing Co., December 2004).

The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates, American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 2, May 2000, 65-70.
Featured in: IMF Survey January 23, 2000, and Dow Jones Newswire May 1, 2000.
Reprinted in: Jorge F. Pérez-López, and José F. Alonso, eds. Cuba in Transition, Vol. 10, Papers and Proceedings of Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (Washington DC: ASCE, 2000), 48-53.
Reprinted in: Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, (Ottawa: Bank of Canada, November 2000), 351-360.

Do Capital Controls Influence the Volume and Composition of Capital Flows? Evidence from the 1990s, (with Peter Montiel), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 18 No. 4, August 1999, 619-635.
Featured in: Wall Street Journal, November 7, 1997.

The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Paper No. 544 (March 1996), American Economic Review, Vol. 89 No. 3, June 1999, 473-500.
Featured in: El Tiempo,  Mexico City, Mexico, June 26, 1997, and The Economic Times,  India, August 3, 1997, and Dinero, Bogotá, Colombia, July 15, 1998.
Reprinted as: “Las Crisis Gemelas: Las Causas de los Problemas Bancarios y de Balanza de Pago,” Manuel Guitián and Félix Varela, eds. Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 63-110.
Reprinted in: Global Financial Crisis and Reforms: Cases and Caveats, B.N. Gosh ed., (London: Routledge Press, 2001), 9-47.
Reprinted in: The Political Economy of Financial Crises, Roy E. Allen, ed., (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., November 2004).
Reprinted in: New International Financial Architecture, Nouriel Roubini and Marc Uzan, eds. (Camberley: Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd., 2006).
Reprinted in: Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale, Financial Crises, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2007).

On the Use of Reserve Requirements in Dealing with the Capital-Flow Problem, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 4  No.1, January 1999, 27-54.

Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods, (with Masao Ogaki), Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 106 No. 5, October 1998, 1078-1098.

Intertemporal Substitution and Durable Goods: Long-Run Data, (with Masao Ogaki), Economics Letters, Vol. 61 No. 1, October 1998, 85-90.

Capital Flows and Saving in Latin America and Asia: A Reinterpretation, (with ErnestoTalvi),  Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 57 No. 1, October 1998, 45-66.

Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America Different: Then and Now, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky),  American Economic Review, Vol. 88, May 1998, 444-449.
Reprinted in: Merrill Lynch Emerging Markets Debt Monthly, September 1998.
Reprinted as: “Crisis Financieras en Asia in Latinoamérica: Ahora y Entonces,” Manuel Guitián and Félix Varela, eds. Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (Madrid: Ediciones Pirámide, 2000), 113-121.
Reprinted in: Nagendra V. Chowdhary ed. Financial Sector Reforms: An Indian Perspective  (India:  ICFAI University Press, 2006).

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky and J. Saul Lizondo), IMF Working Paper WP/97/79, July 1997. IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45 No. 1, March 1998, 1-48, (lead article).
Featured in:  IMF Survey, Vol. 26 No. 16, August 18, 1997, Financial Times, August 4, 1997, The Economist, August 1, 1998, and En Negocios, Mexico City.

Le Prix del’Argent: How (Not) to Deal with Capital Inflows, (with Patrick Asea),  Journal of African Economies, Vol. 5 No. 3, Supplement Part I, October 1996, 231-271.

Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison, (with Masao Ogaki and Jonathan Ostry), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43 No. 1, March 1996, 38-71.
Featured in:  The Economist, March 9, 1996.

Capital Flows to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.10 No. 2, Spring 1996, 123-139.
Reprinted in: Chris Milner ed., Developing and Newly Industrialising Countries, (United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 1998), 135-151. 

Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 42 No. 2, June 1995, 290-312.

The Demand for Money in Developing Countries: Assessing the Role of Financial Innovation, (with Patricio Arrau, José De Gregorio, and Peter Wickham), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 46, 1995, 317-340.

Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Carlos A. Végh), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 47, June 1995, 97-133. 
Reprinted  as: La Tasa de Cambio Real Como Meta de Política: Teoría y Evidencia, Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica, 1995), 1-24.

Nominal Interest Rates, Consumption Booms, and Lack of Credibility: A Quantitative Examination, (with Carlos A.Végh), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 46 No. 2, April 1995, 357-378.

The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. XII No. 3, July 1994, 54-66.
Reprinted in:  International Center for Economic Growth Occasional Papers Number 56, (Panama City, Panama, ICS Press, August 1994).
Reprinted as: “El Problema de la Afluencia de Capital,” Roberto Steiner, ed. Afluencia de Capitales y Estabilización en América Latina, (Bogotá: Tercer Mundo Editores, 1995), 1-24.

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices, (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994, 236-261.

Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline? (with Peter Wickham), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41 No. 2, June 1994, 175-213 (lead article).

Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40 No. 1, March 1993, 108-151.
Featured in:  El Financiero, Mexico City, September 3, 1992, Journal of Commerce September 24, 1992, and Miami Herald, September 24, 1992.
Reprinted as: “Afluencia de Capital y Apreciación del Tipo de Cambio Real en América Latina: El Papel de Factores Externos” in Mauricio Cárdenas and Luis Jorge Garay, eds. Macroeconomia de los Flujos de Capital en Colombia y América Latina, (Bogotá, Colombia: Tercer Mundo Editores, 1993), 15-84

Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries, (with Jonathan Ostry), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39 No. 3, September 1992, 495-517.

Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 4, December 1991, 705-735.
Reprinted as: Fluctuaciones del Producto y Choques Monetarios: Evidencia Colombiana, Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, No. 20, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica, December 1991), 53-86.

Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38 No. 3, September 1991, 506-524.

A Model of Adjustment and Growth,  IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 37 No. 1, March 1990, 168-182.

Private Investment and Economic Growth, (with Mohsin S. Khan), World Development, Vol. 18 No. 1, January 1990, 19-27.
Reprinted in: Hans Singer, Neelambar Hatti, Rameshwar Tandon eds. New World Order Series Vol. 11 Foreign Direct Investments, (New Delhi: Indus Publishing Co., 1991), 243-258. 

Chapters in Books

Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present, (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi (eds.) NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2008, (Chicago: Chicago University Press for NBER, 2009).
Featured in: The Economist, Economic Focus, September 25, 2008, Financial Express, India, September 28, 2008, La Jornada, Mexico, October 7,2008.
Reprinted as: “Bonanzas de Capital:  Una Mirada que Abarca el Pasado y el Presente,”Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica, No. 20, (Bogotá: Banco de la Republica), December 2009.

Capital Controls: An Evaluation (with Nicolas Magud), in Sebastian Edwards (ed.), Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences (Chicago: Chicago University Press for the NBER, 2007).
Featured in: The Guardian, UK, October 27, 2009, Financial Times, November 5, 2009.

The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Shocks, (with Graciela  L. Kaminsky) NBER Working Paper 9479, February 2003 forthcoming in Carmen M. Reinhart, Carlos A. Végh and Andres Velasco eds. Capital Flows, Crisis, and Stabilization:  Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo. (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008).
Featured in: Finance and Development, World Bank, June 2003,  IMF Survey, Vol. 33 No. 10, May 31, 2004.
Reprinted in : H. Peter Gray and John R. Dilyard, eds. Globalization and International Economic Instability (Camberley: Edward Elgar, 2004).

Serial Default and Its Remedies, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). Miguel Centeno, Harold James, and J. Londregan, eds. The Political Economy of Recurrent Debt. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies Monograph Series, Number 3, 2005). 4-18 (lead article).
Featured in: The New Yorker, December 24, 2007.

FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), in Boris Pleskovic and Nicholas Stern, eds. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2002: The New Reform Agenda, (Washington, DC:  World Bank/Oxford University Press), 247-82. 

Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System:  Summary and Policy Implications, (with Richard Levich and Giovanni Majnoni) in Richard Levich, Giovanni Majnoni, and Carmen M. Reinhart eds. Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System  (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002), 1-16.

Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises, in Richard Levich, Giovanni Majnoni, and Carmen M. Reinhart, eds. Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System, (New York: Kluwer Academic Press, 2002), 251-268.
Reprinted as: Tsao Rong Xiang, ed. Country Risk and Economic Stabilization in Developing Countries, (China: Social Sciences Documentation Publishing House, 2003).

What Hurts Most: G-3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility? (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, eds. Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 73-99.
Featured in:  No Gain from Reducing G-3 Currency Volatility, NBER Digest, (Cambridge: NBER, January 2002).

Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis, (with Graciela L. Kaminsky), in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger, eds. Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 73-99.
Featured in: Paul Blustein, The Chastening (New York, NY: Public Affairs Books, 2001).

Capital Controls During Financial Crises: The Case of Malaysia and Thailand, (with Hali Edison), in Reuven Glick ed. Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 427-456. 

Reflections on Dollarization, (with Guillermo A. Calvo), in Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro (eds.), Currency Unions (Stanford: Hoover Institute Press, 2001), 39-47.

The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s (with Peter Montiel) in Stephany Griffith-Jones, Manuel Montes, and Anwar Nasution eds. Short-term Capital Flows and Economic Crises, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), 3-28 (lead article).

When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options, (with Guillermo A. Calvo) in Peter Kenen and Alexandre Swoboda, eds. Reforming the International Monetary and Financial System, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, 2000), 175-201.
Featured in: IMF Survey 28(12), June 21, 1999.

Saving in Latin America and Lessons from Europe: An Overview, (with William Plies), in Carmen M. Reinhart ed. Accounting for Saving: Financial Liberalization, Capital Flows, and Growth in Latin America and Europe (Washington DC: John Hopkins University Press for the Inter-American Development Bank, 1999), 3-47.

Too Much of a Good Thing: the Macroeconomic Effects of Taxing Capital Inflow, (with R.Todd Smith), in Reuven Glick, ed. Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Perspectives from the Pacific Basin, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 436-464.

Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal with the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows, (with Vincent R. Reinhart) in Miles Kahler, ed. Capital Flows and Financial Crises, Council on Foreign Relations Book (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998), 93-127.

Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects? (with Sara Calvo), in Guillermo A. Calvo, Morris Goldstein, Eduard Hochreiter, eds. Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis (Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1996), 151-171.
First very different working paper version.
Featured in: IMF Survey,  Vol. 24 No. 3, December 11, 1995.
Reprinted in: New World Order Series Vol. 18 Adjustment in Latin America. Hans Singer, N.Hatti, Rameshwar Tandon eds., (New Dehli: Indus Publishing Co., 1998).

Capital Inflows to Latin America with Reference to the Asian Experience, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), in Sebastian Edwards, ed. Capital Controls, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in the World Economy, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), 339-382.

Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s,  (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), in Edmar Bacha, ed. Economics in a Changing World, Vol. 4 Development, Trade and the Environment, (London: Macmillan Press, 1994), 123-148.

A Model of Adjustment and Growth: An Empirical Analysis, in Mohsin S. Khan, Peter Montiel, and Nadeem Ul Haque, eds. Macroeconomic Models for Adjustment in Developing Countries, (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1991), 10-37 (lead article).  

Short Articles

Fiscal Stimulus for Debt Intolerant Countries? (with Vincent R. Reinhart) In VoxEU, August 22, 2009.

The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises in VoxEU January 26, 2009.
Reprinted in: Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu,  January 29, 2008.

Is the US Too Big to Fail? (with Vincent R. Reinhart) VoxEU. November 17, 2008.
Reprinted in: Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, November 23, 2008.

From Capital  Flow Bonanza to Financial Crash (with Vincent R. Reinhart) VoxEU October 23, 2008.
Reprinted in: Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu,  October 23, 2008.

Watch Out for Sovereign Debt Risk (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), Wall Street Journal: Opinion, June 24, 2008.

The Next (but not new) Frontier for Sovereign Default in VoxEU.org May 22, 2008.
Reprinted in: RGE Monitor, July 17, 2008.

Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly in VoxEU.org April 19, 2008.
Reprinted in: Economist’s View, April 19, Market Pipeline, April 20, and Telos, April 24.

Reflections on the International Dimensions and Policy Lessons of the U.S. Subprime Crisis in VoxEU.org, March 17, 2008.
Reprinted in:  The Turkish Weekly March 17, 2008.

Some Perspectives on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, NBER Reporter, Summer 2005, 8-10 and NBER profile.

The Realities of Modern Hyperinflation (with Miguel A. Savastano), Finance and Development, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, June 2003), 20-23.
Reprinted in: Inflation: Concepts and Experiences in Shilpa Rao, ed. (Dehli: The Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India, 2005).

Is a G-3 Target Zone on Target for Emerging Markets? (with Vincent R. Reinhart), Finance and Development, Vol. 39 No. 1, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, March 2002), 17-19.

Financial Crises, Credit Ratings, and Bank Failures: An Introduction, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16 No. 2, 2002, 149-151.

Capital Flow Reversals, The Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization, (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Finance and Development, Vol. 36 No.3, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, September 1999), 13-15.

Economic Growth and the Consequences of External Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Introduction, (with Patrick Asea), Journal of African Economies, Vol. 5  No. 3, Supplement Part I, October 1996, 1-6.

Saving and the Real Interest Rate in Developing Countries, (with Jonathan Ostry), Finance and Development, Vol. 32 No. 4, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, December 1995), 16-18.

Formulating a Policy Response: Reply to Snowden, (with Guillermo A. Calvo and Leonardo Leiderman), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40 No. 4, (December 1993), 865-868.

Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia: A Reply to García, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40 No. 4, (December 1993), 876-878. 

Policy Related

Testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, February 24, 2008.
Featured in:  The Dow Jones Newswire, February 26, and The Wall Street Journal  February 27.

“Financial Turmoil: Systemic or Regional?” (with Graciela L. Kaminsky). Risk Measurement and Systemic Risk, Proceedings of the Third Joint Central Bank Research Conference, (Basle: Bank of International Settlements, October 2002).

Growth and External Financing in Latin America (with Guillermo A. Calvo, Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, and Ernesto Talvi), IDB Working Paper 457. Prepared for What is Holding Back Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean? What Should Governments Do? Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors, Inter-American Development Bank and Inter-American Investment Corporation, Santiago de Chile, March 18, 2001.

The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets, (with Guillermo Calvo, Eduardo Fernández-Arias, and Ernesto Talvi, Prepared for  What is Holding Back Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean? What Should Governments Do? Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors, Inter-American Development Bank and Inter-American Investment Corporation, Santiago de Chile, March 18, 2001

The Consequences and Management of Capital Inflows: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa, (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Expert Group on Development Issues Series, 1998:2, (Stockholm: Almqvist and Wiksell International, 1999).

Dealing with Capital Flows: Are There Any Lessons? (with Steven Dunaway), United Nations University/WIDER Research for Action 28, 1996.

Capital Flows in the APEC Region, (with Mohsin S. Khan), IMF Occasional Paper 122, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, April 1995).

The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices, (with Eduardo Borensztein, Mohsin S. Khan, and Peter Wickham), IMF Occasional Paper 112, (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, August 1994).

Capital Inflows to Latin America, (with Leonardo Leiderman) in A Study Group Report—Latin America Capital Flows: Living with Volatility, (Washington DC: Group of Thirty, 1994). 

Comments and Book Reviews

Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances (by Ricardo Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, forthcoming 2009.

For Better or for Worse? Job and Earnings Mobility in Nine Middle- and Low-Income Countries (by Suzanne Duryea, Gustavo Márquez, Carmen Pagés, and Stefano Scarpetta) in Brookings Trade Forum 2006, Susan Collins and Carol Graham, eds. (Washington DC:  Brookings Institution, 2006), 204-207.

Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets:  The Tale of the tormented Insurer (slides) (by Enrique Mendoza) and Currency Mismatch, Uncertainly and Debt Structure,” (by Matthieu Bussiere and Marcel Fratzscher) in Dollars, Debts, and Deficits: 60 Years After Bretton Woods (Madrid: Banco de España).

Straining at the Anchor:  The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880-1935, (by Gerardo de la Paler and Alan M. Taylor), Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XLII, No. 1, March 2004, 187-226.

New Approaches to Crisis Resolution: Weighing the Options, (by Barry Eichengreen, Kenneth Kletzer, and Ashoka Mody), in Brookings Trade Forum 2003, Susan Collins and Dani Rodrik, eds., (Washington DC:  Brookings Institution, 2003), 338-348.

Fundamental Determinants of the Asian Crisis: The Role of Financial Fragility and External Imbalances, (by Giancarlo Corsetti, Paolo Pesenti, and Nouriel Roubini), in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger, eds. Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 42-45.

Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea, (by Michael Dooley) in Reuven Glick ed. Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility, (by Philippe Bachetta and Eric Van Wincoop) in Sebastian Edwards, ed. Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theories, Evidence, and Controversies, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2000), 98-103.

Political Contagion in Currency Crises, (by Alan Drazen) in Paul Krugman, ed., Currency Crises (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2000), 67-70.

Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving, Investment, and Growth,” (by Barry Bosworth and Susan Collins) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, June 1999, 170-176.

Some Parallels Between Currency and Banking Crises, (by Nancy Marion) in Peter Isard, Assaf Razin and Andrew Rose, eds. International Finance and Financial Crises:  Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood Jr., (London: Kluwer Academic Press, 1999), 19-23. 

Unpublished Working Papers

Do Exchange Rate Based Stabilizations Carry the Seeds of Their Own Destruction?, (with Carlos A. Végh).  MPRA Paper 8952, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Intertemporal Consumption Substitution and Inflation Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation. (with Carlos A.Végh), University of Maryland, Papers in International Economics No. 3, 1993.

Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in a Neoclassical Model, IMF Working Paper WP/88/55, June 1988. 

Current Research

“Exchange Rate Arrangements Entering the 21^st  Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” (with Ethan O. Ilzetzki, and Kenneth S. Rogoff).

 “When the North Went South: The World in Crisis,” (with Vincent R. Reinhart), 2009.

The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper 13946, April 2008.
Featured in:  NBER Digest, (Cambridge: NBER,  January, 9008). Telegraph, UK, June 2, 2008, The Baltimore Chronicle, November 3, 2008, Washington Post, January 11, 2009, Globe and Mail, Canada, February 18, 2009, among others.

This Time is Different:  A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises, (with Kenneth S. Rogoff). NBER Working Paper 13882, March 2008. 
Featured in: Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2008, Business Standard News, New Delhi March 21,2008 The Financial Times, April 15, 2008, The Australian and Gulf News, April 19,2008, Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2008, Bloomberg, May 12, 2008 La Nacion (Argentina), June 1, 2008, Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2008, Wall Street Journal, July 21, 2008, Baltimore Examiner, September 13, 2008, Livemint, Wall Street Journal India, September 23, 2008 Financial Times, October 10. 2008, Wealth Manager, December 5, 2008, El Pais, Spain, December 28. 2008, Vanity Fair, December 2008,Livemint, Wall Street Journal, India, January 25, 2009, Huffington Post, April 9, 2009, among others
Podcast: NEC#60 of my presentation at the National Economists Club on May 27, 2008.  

Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation:  The Recent Evidence, (with Vincent R. Reinhart), NBER Working Paper 13842, March 2008. 
Featured in:  NBER Digest, (Cambridge: NBER, November, 2008).

The Lending Channel in Emerging Economies: Are Foreign Banks Different?, (with Marco Arena and Francisco Vazquez), NBER Working Paper 12340, June 2006.

Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, (with Nicolas Magud and Kenneth S. Rogoff). University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.

Before and After Financial Liberalization, (with Ioannis Tokatlidis). MPRA Paper 6986, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Selected Conferences and Seminars Organized

• Co-organizer (with Liliana Rojas-Suarez) Improving Access to Financial Services in Developing Countries. Center for Global Development Washington DC, November 29-30, 2007.
  Organizer, Financial Crises and Contagion, United States Treasury, August, 9-10, 2004.

• Co-organizer (with Sebastian Edwards), the National Bureau of Economic Research’s InterAmerican Seminar on Economics (IASE), Cambridge, MA, 2004.

• Co-organizer (with Carlos A. Végh and Andres Velasco), Capital Flows, Crisis, and Stabilization:  Festschrift in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, April 15-16, 2003.

• Program Committee, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association Annual Conference 2002.

• Co-organizer (with Richard Levich and Giovanni Majnoni), The Role of Credit Rating Agencies in the International Economy, The World Bank, Washington, DC, March 1-2, 2001. 

• Organizer, International Monetary Fund Internal Training Program Financial Crises Facts: Theories, and Policies, November 27 – December 1, 1999, May 7 - 9, 2001, and Financial Crises, Contagion and Debt, January 12-13, 2004, Washington, DC.

• Co-organizer (with Guillermo A. Calvo), Workshop on Capital Flow Volatility, Contagion, and  Crises Management,  March 23-April 3, 1998 and June 28 - July 2, 1999, University of Maryland, College Park.

• Co-organizer (with Guillermo A. Calvo), of the International Monetary Fund  Economic Training Program Financial Crises Facts, Theories, and Policies,  November 16 - 18, 1998, Washington, DC. 

Referee Activities

Journals: 

American Economic Review, Applied Financial Economics, Contemporary Economic Policy, Economic Journal, Economic Notes, Economic Inquiry, Economics Letters, European Economic Review, IMF Staff Papers, International Economic Review, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Finance and Economics, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of African Economies, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Integration, Journal of Economic Literature, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Policy Reform, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Pacific Basin Finance Journal, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of International Economics, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, World Bank Economic Review, World Development, and World Politics.

Other review: 

MIT Press, National Science Foundation Economics Program, Smith Richardson Foundation, and African Economic Research Consortium.